Unlikely Voter

Conservative views on polls, science, technology, and policy

Buy the Swingometer for iPhone and iPod Touch

It’s here, and it’s only $0.99 in the App Store℠! It’s Swingometer for iPhone® and iPod Touch®! Now there’s an optimized interface for the small screen, when the web version just isn’t handy enough!

Am I excited? You bet!

 

Read More | July 13, 2010
Indiana is off the list

Public Policy Polling hasn’t even looked in the direction of Indiana, but Rasmussen keeps plugging away at it. But every single time, Dan Coats is ahead of Brad Ellsworth by double figures.

This month is no exception, so this race is off the list of interesting races.

 

Read More | July 12, 2010
Illinois Update

Yes, it’s the weekend but I thought I’d toss these two polls out there as they’re both important, close races in a big state.

Rasmussen has updated us on the Illinois races for Governor and Senator. I think both sides have something disappointing to see here.

 

Read More | July 11, 2010
Speculating about West Virginia

There seems to be some disagreement in West Virginia over the proper way to fill the seat vacated by Robert C. Byrd. Some say the the Governor should make an appointment until November 2012, when a special election will be held to fill the seat until January 2013. The Attorney General is saying the special election must be held this November, and so Rasmussen polled the race.

 

Read More | July 9, 2010
Rubio battles back

For a while the polling of the Florida Senate race had many people thinking that Charlie Crist, newly minted Independent, was running away with it.

I disagreed and assumed his bump in the polls was driven by heavy coverage of his party switch and of his oil spill inspections. Rasmussen’s latest just might bear that out as Marco Rubio takes a fresh lead.

 

Read More | July 8, 2010
Fiorina also makes it close in California

Following up on yesterday’s Field release which saw Democrats bleeding the Latino vote in California, this poll of the Senate race brings more personal bad news for Barbara Boxer: her job approval ratings have sunk underwater, joining her personal favorability ratings.

 

Read More | July 8, 2010
Whitman makes it close in California

Before the primary, for a while when Meg Whitman was campaigning and Jerry Brown did not have to, Whitman took a lead in the race for Governor in California. It didn’t last, but the latest Field Poll is good news for her, and not just because it shows her with only a one point deficit.

 

Read More | July 7, 2010
A follow up on the Kentucky Senate race

Jim Geraghty points out a possible issue with PPP’s polling in Kentucky: PPP has Democrats taking a greater share of the 2010 electorate than the exit polls gave them in 2008. That strikes me as most unlikely. Democrats were remarkably motivated in 2008, but it is Republicans who enjoy that status today. So I’m inclined […] 

Read More | July 6, 2010
What is going on in Kentucky?

With the help of the Real Clear Politics, here are the last few polls of the Kentucky Senate race. PPP: Randal Paul +1. RR: Paul +25. SUSA: Paul +6. RR: Paul +8, Paul +7. And now we have PPP: Tie.

Why is PPP running so much further toward Jack Conway than the other two pollsters?

 

Read More | July 6, 2010
Mixed news for Burr, despite a lead

PPP released its poll on the North Carolina Senate race that I’ve been waiting for since the twitter feed hinted the poll was coming.

Richard Burr leads, but it could be the race tilts slightly toward Elaine Marshall in the long run.

 

Read More | July 6, 2010
Tied in Georgia

John Oxendine has long held the lead on the Republican side of the Georgia primary for Governor, but if InsiderAdvantage’s poll for WSB is accurate, that has changed.

It’s tied says this poll, and Karen Handel made it one.

 

Read More | July 6, 2010
Split pollster decision in the Ohio Senate race

Last week I was all over Rob Portman, explaining my theory for why he was having trouble with Lee Fisher in the Ohio Senate race, and trying to tell him how to run his campaign.

I believe his answer would be that he leads this new Rasmussen.

 

Read More | July 5, 2010
Ehrlich takes a lead in Maryland

In sports there’s an old saying that I like to quote: “It’s not a rivalry until both sides win.” I’m thinking it’d be wise to extend that to political polling, and say that a race isn’t truly close until both sides have led.

In that case, the Maryland Governor’s race is truly close now.

 

Read More | July 5, 2010