Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection


By on March 8, 2010

Unlikely Voter

Unlikely Voter was launched on March 15, 2010 with the goal of studying the practice of political polling, the analysis of poll results, and the projections that can be made from aggregated poll analyses. No preconceived models or theories went into the founding of the site. Unlikely Voter is an essay in the true sense of the word: the site will explore the problem space and find conclusions as they present themselves.

The Author

Neil Stevens is the Founder and Author of the site. He does not hide that he is a conservative Republican activist, with the biases that description implies. However his purpose in writing at Unlikely Voter is not to advance a partisan or policy agenda, but rather to develop neutral tools which aid his activism.

Neil is a lifelong resident of southern California, who moved to northern Virginia in 2012 to take a New Media™ job. He is also a contributing editor at RedState.com.

Comments Policy

The Author supports the First Amendment, and the right it gives him to publish whatever content he chooses. All comments will be withheld for moderation unless the commenter has had a comment approved in the past. Comments will be approved at the pleasure of the Author. The use of a valid email address increases the likelihood that a comment will be published. Passive aggression, “snark,” profanity, namecalling, bad faith argumentation, or just getting on the Author’s nerves all decrease the likelihood that a comment will be published.

The Author freely credits Moe Lane with the inspiration for this comments policy.

The Making

An overview of my current model for a single poll is in this post on a Pennsylvania Senate primary poll. Also, here is a look at the tools that make Unlikely Voter.