Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Split pollster decision in the Ohio Senate race

Last week I was all over Rob Portman, explaining my theory for why he was having trouble with Lee Fisher in the Ohio Senate race, and trying to tell him how to run his campaign.

I believe his answer would be that he leads this new Rasmussen.

Portman’s lead over Fisher per Rasmussen is 43-39 (MoE 4.5), which is a pretty big difference (6 point Republican swing) from last week’s 40-42 lead for Fisher per Quinnipiac. But we’ve heard things about Quinnipiac in Ohio before, so I’m sure some will be ready to dismiss them.

Still, I look forward to ever more polling in Ohio, particularly by Public Policy Polling to round out the other two. Especially since we now know we can’t really count on Research 2000 anymore…

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