Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Florida gives a boost to Herman Cain

Last week’s shock poll bringing Herman Cain into third place needed confirmation before we could be sure that Cain was a serious contender.

Two new polls of Florida Republicans by SurveyUSA for WFLA and by War Room Logistics seem to provide that confirmation and more: Both put Herman Cain in second in the key early primary state.

 

Read More | October 3, 2011
Fox: A new look at Herman Cain

Today’s been the single biggest polling day in my estimation since the 2010 elections. Three major releases all containing interesting data. The third and most surprising of those comes from Fox News, which shows Herman Cain not just in third place, but taking a top-tier position usually held in recent weeks by Michele Bachmann or Ron Paul.

 

Read More | September 28, 2011
ARG on New Hampshire and Iowa: Romney up, Perry wavering

Busy day for polling. The second of three noteworthy poll releases today comes from American Research Group, who polling New Hampshire.

The story today continues to be good news for Mitt Romney.

 

Read More | September 28, 2011
Quinnipiac in OH and PA: Romney leads, Perry leads, Santorum flops

Quinnipiac put out a pair of new polls, focusing on the Republican primary race in Pennsylvania and in Ohio. They have some problems that limit their utility, but I believe they will get much attention today because of their top line results, so it’s time to take a look anyway.

Why the attention? Romney bucks the national trend again to lead in both states.

 

Read More | September 28, 2011
Perry and Romney steady, Cain and Gingrich pass Paul

A couple of debates ago we looked at where the Republican Presidential primary stood nationally. Since then we’ve seen Mitt Romney surge, presumably as the anti-Rick Perry candidate.

But will Perry himself tumble after widely criticized debate efforts? Let’s check the new CNN poll.

 

Read More | September 26, 2011
Romney running away with New Hampshire

Last time around, Mitt Romney took a blow when he took ‘silver’ in his neighboring state New Hampshire, losing to the man who’d been plotting to win the state since the last contested primary there, John McCain.

This time it looks like Romney is going to repeat the McCain strategy. By never having given up on the state since November 2008, Romney looks set to take the state this time around, according to the new Suffolk University/WHDH poll.

 

Read More | September 22, 2011
Gallup: Romney gaining from Bachmann?

The new Gallup poll of the Republican contenders is out, this time with USA TODAY branding. Just looking at the frontrunners Rick Perry and Mitt Romney in isolation, it looks like Romney is gaining. What I find interesting though is where that support appears to be coming from.

Romney’s support may be coming from Michele Bachmann.

 

Read More | September 19, 2011
The state of the race before the Debate

Last night CNN hosted a key Republican Presidential debate, in which Rick Perry took a variety of attacks. This is critical because going into Rick Perry’s first debate, his favorability ratings were great, and his unfavorables were miniscule compared with the field.

Let’s see where CNN had the state of the race going into last night.

 

Read More | September 13, 2011
New! Create your own Electoral College!

Swingometer is my favorite tool for projecting elections these days, but when it comes to the Presidential election, we all like to run our own scenarios. Not wanting to give up that traffic to other sites, I was obligated to write my own Create your own Electoral College tool.

Enjoy!

 

Read More | September 4, 2011
Swingometer feature added

I’ve added a new feature to the Swingometers: Click on a state/district and it gives more information. Simple enough, but maybe it’s handy.

 

Read More | September 4, 2011