Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Simulating the RCP House ratings

I was discussing the Real Clear Politics ratings of the House with Moe Lane on Sunday, so I thought I might as well run some simulations based on those ratings.

In fact I did these twice: once for my usual scale, and once for Moe’s own probabilities for each category.

 

Read More | August 2, 2010
As always, I’m taking requests

Is there a poll you’d like to see analyzed? Is there a race you want me to check for polling? How about an analysis nobody’s published?

Hit the contact form and I’ll be happy to try.

 

Read More | August 1, 2010
Ron Johnson is here to stay

When Ron Johnson showed a lead over Russ Feingold in the Wisconsin Senate polling, it could have been a fluky outlier result. The incumbent Democrat could still have been safe.

Rasmussen again has Johnson ahead, though, so that theory is ruled out. The lead is tiny, but looks real.

 

Read More | July 30, 2010
Fox News meets the Swingometer

Opinion Dynamics did a generic ballot poll for Fox News, so we welcome Fox to the Swingometer today. Also polled is the President’s performance on the issues.

I see on the issue of “Race Relations” Barack Obama has +16 net approval at 50/34. I wonder if that will change after his statements on The View yesterday.

 

Read More | July 30, 2010
Unpacking the California Senate polling

I’ve seen a few Republicans express serious doubts about Carly Fiorina after the latest California Senate poll from Public Policy Polling, but I think close inspection of that poll should give one pause before putting too much weight on its results.

Besides, the other new poll, from the Public Policy Institute of California, deep down is as bad for Barbara Boxer as the Republicans could ever hope for.

 

Read More | July 29, 2010
More confusion in North Carolina

Up and down, up and down, that’s the story of Richard Burr’s fight against challenger Elaine Marshall. I’m sure he’s much happier to lead than to trail but when he keeps hanging in the mid-40s, and Marshall keeps hanging around in the upper 30s, he’s in a position where he could be knocked off.

Civitas has a new poll out and the story still hasn’t changed.

 

Read More | July 29, 2010
The primary heats up in New Hampshire

The big, scary to Republicans headline over at Hotline is Ayotte’s Unfavorable Ratings Rising in UNH Poll.

I’m sure it’s true, but that’s what happens in contested primaries such as the one right now for Republicans in the New Hampshire Senate race. Right now, Bill Binnie’s fans don’t like Kelly Ayotte much, her fans don’t like him much.

 

Read More | July 29, 2010
Dudley’s lead confirmed

We’re now at three polls in a row, counting the new Rasmussen, that show Chris Dudley ahead of John Kitzhaber in Oregon.

Even without a third party candidate mucking up the poll, the Democrat just can’t pull ahead.

 

Read More | July 28, 2010
Pomeroy’s not finished yet

Today is apparently the day for House races, because we have another one to look into: the North Dakota at-large race.

We’ve looked at this race before, and it wasn’t promising for incumbent Democrat Earl Pomeroy, but right now he seems to be closing into Republican challenger Rick Berg.

 

Read More | July 27, 2010
Dueling polls in New Mexico

Much like New Hampshire I’ve covered previously, New Mexico was the site of big wins for Democrats in recent years, wiping out the Republican Party.

But now a SurveyUSA poll for KOB of the first Congressional District has Democrat Martin Heinrich so worried, he’s put out an internal poll in response.

 

Read More | July 27, 2010