Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Senate Projection for September 27

With the House update done, it’s time to move on to the new Senate update. Last week the pace of Republican gains were still stuck as the party was pushed way back into six seat territory, and the chance of a majority change teetered at 1%. Will that chance fall off the map entirely? Let’s find out.

 

Read More | September 28, 2010
House Projection for September 27

It’s technically Tuesday morning early as I write this, but I’m going to use the polls released on Monday, so this will be filed as this Monday’s projection update, as always built with generic ballot polls from Real Clear Politics.

Last week the Republicans fell off from historic gains to a result with a small majority. Let’s see if the trend continues on down or not.

 

Read More | September 28, 2010
On the USC/LA Times poll of California

This new poll of the California races by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and American Viewpoint for USC and the LA Times has been discussed from one side of the Internet to the other, and back again.

But I wouldn’t be doing my job if I let it go without chiming in, now would I? Of course not. So let’s dig in.

 

Read More | September 27, 2010
Is Jack Conway surging in Kentucky?

The last SurveyUSA poll of the Kentucky Senate race showed Republican Randal Paul running away with it from Democrat Jack Conway. However the new one tells a completely different story in its top line.

When two polls by the same firm of the same race differ by that much, there has to be a story behind the story. Fortunately SurveyUSA’s detailed public reports make it easy to dig in and find what that story is.

 

Read More | September 27, 2010
Terribly inconsistent polling in Florida

I am at a loss as to how to analyze the polling of the race for Governor in Florida. Of the last four polls at Real Clear Politics, Republican Rick Scott leads according to Rasmussen Reports and Ipsos for Reuters, while Democrat Alex Sink leads acccording to Mason Dixon and CNN/Time.

Two polls concluded on the same day (Rasmussen and Mason Dixon) are not supposed to have a thirteen point swing between them, predicting different winners, but they do. So what’s going on?

 

Read More | September 24, 2010
The new Field Poll

We’ve already been seeing a slight move toward Democrat Barbara Boxer in the California Senate polling, down from Republican Carly Fiorina’s highs of taking a few leads.

But the new Field Poll release isn’t really new, and really only highlights again how Fiorina has a better chance to win than any California Republican Senate candidate since Pete Wilson.

 

Read More | September 24, 2010
The air war is joined in California

Carly Fiorina trailed the Republican primary most of the way after Tom Campbell entered. But in the end she got the right endorsements and spent the money it took to get her message out and win.

She’s now going on the air against Democrat Barbara Boxer, a move I think is important because her deficit in SurveyUSA’s new poll is a bit larger than I think it needs to be for her to hang around and win in the end.

 

Read More | September 23, 2010
Three new polls on the New York Special

A flood of new polls about New York Senate races came out today. Chuck Schumer still looks safe, but the polling is variable on the special election between Republican Joe DioGuardi and Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand.

We’re now beyond the idea that only one poll, one time showed the special election to be competitive. Polls showing a Gillibrand blowout are now the minority.

 

Read More | September 23, 2010
Are the Generic Ballots shaded against the Democrats?

Nate Silver at the New York Times suggested yesterday that generic ballot polling might underestimate how well the Democrats will do in November.

Henry Olson at NRO countered by describing how it might shade the other way.

I think it’s the best tool we’ve got, and partisan bias is somewhere in the middle. Here’s why.

 

Read More | September 22, 2010
Republican bounces in New York?

Being just one man trying to cover 435 House races, 37 Senate races, a few dozen more states electing Governors, plus some of the technical and mathematical aspects of polling, I tend not to post on races that aren’t competitive.

So it’s surprising to me that I now have not one, but two New York polls to discuss today: Quinnipiac on the Governor’s race and Rasmussen on the Senate special election.

 

Read More | September 22, 2010