Poll Analysis with Lord Pollington
Yes, it’s the tiniest of all possible leads, but Republican Carly Fiorina has taken another polling lead over Democrat Barbara Boxer. Up until now we’ve had a discrepancy in the polling, in which SurveyUSA had Fiorina ahead but everyone else had Boxer ahead. I wondered how long that gap would last.
Apparently the answer was “one week.”
Previously, the story of the race for Governor in Texas that was that Rick Perry was stagnant in the polls and Democrat Bill White was rising.
But now, Rasmussen has shown a change. Perry has gone over 50 for the first time, and White has gone back under 40.
The new Gallup generic ballot is out. Last time, it was even: 46-46. The two times before that it was at 45-45. Now it’s at R 46-D 45. Democrats have not led since March.
Gallup’s generic ballot is accurate in off year elections, so let’s see how that moves the Swingometer.
One more day until the big primary election in Pennsylvania, and two big races to watch. Who replaces Jack Murtha? Who faces Pat Toomey in November?
Let’s dig in.
I have an exciting new iPhone® app in progress. In fact, I’m so excited about it that I could hardly sleep last night, and worked way too much on the iPhone Swingometer instead.
So perhaps the lack of sleep is the reason I’m drawing a total blank on how to jazz up PPP’s latest on the Republican side of the Kentucky Senate Primary.
To join the House Swingometer I’ve now added the Electoral College Swingometer.
Obviously we need the 2010 Census to complete before we will know the actual makeup of the 2012 Electoral College, but for now I use the 2008 numbers.
In Rasmussen’s latest peek in to the New Hampshire Senate race we little movement in May.
Spending some time with the nephew so apologies for the late and simpler post. Next week things should be back on track. This evening, we played Sorry! I took a 2-0 lead, he made a rousing comeback to tie it at 3, and then finally I edged him out to slip in for the win.
But for now, the Colorado race for Governor!
Republicans think they can knock off another majority leader in Harry Reid. Erick Erickson thinks Danny Tarkanian is the best man to put in that seat. Are Nevada Republicans following along?
Be jealous no more of those Brits with their fancy Swingometers. Now we too have one! Of course, the idea of a uniform national swing makes no more sense here than it did over there, but it can still be fun to play around with. So enjoy the 2010 Swingometer for the US House, for whatever it’s worth.
P.S. It takes a 15.1 swing toward Republicans to change control of the House.
Many pollsters rely on random telephone calls in order to get their interviews done. It’s cheaper and easier than having to get people to sit down and do face-to-face interviews, because over the phone a broader range of people can be accessed. The result is a better sample than can be gotten from, say, a shopping mall.
But that ease may be on the way out if people stop owning landlines.
Now available: a version of the Swingometer for the iPhone® and iPod Touch®! Get it in the App Store℠!
House of Representatives Swingometer
Electoral College Swingometer