Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Swinging the Rasmussen Generic Ballot

Speaking of the Swingometer, let’s see what it says about Rasmussen’s latest Generic Congressional Ballot released on the 11th.

The last time we checked on the Rasmussen Generic, Republicans were projected to gain 60 seats in the House.

The Democrats have gotten closer since last month, though, so let’s see what the damage is to Republican hopes:

CategoryDR
2008 two party split5644
Rasmussen two party split June 64456
Rasmussen two party split July 114654

So the swing from 2008 is now from a D+12 to an R+8, or a 20 point swing, down 4 from early June*. A 20 point swing toward the Republicans carried into every district from 2008 would yield a 57 seat Republican gain from that year, and a 235-200 majority.

So the news is better for Democrats, but not what one might call good.

* Last time I had it 22 points, not 24, due to a difference in rounding of the 2008 two party split.

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