Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Indiana is off the list

Public Policy Polling hasn’t even looked in the direction of Indiana, but Rasmussen keeps plugging away at it. But every single time, Dan Coats is ahead of Brad Ellsworth by double figures.

This month is no exception, so this race is off the list of interesting races.

The best thing we could say for Ellsworth’s chances was that Coats was below 50, so he at least was still looking like someone less secure than a safe incumbent. But when he can put up a margin like 51-30 (MoE 4.5), that’s putting the race away. I don’t care what party you’re in: over 50 with a 21 point lead is a runaway win.

PPACA opposition runs at 59%, and Ellsworth’s House vote ties him directly to the bill. Coats’s favorability numbers aren’t exceptional, but Ellsworth’s are slightly worse, leaving him in no position to benefit. These figures suggest the race won’t change barring some new event.

If something does happen in the Indiana Senate race, I’ll post on it again. Until then, though, I’m moving on to races that are competitive.

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