Unlikely Voter

Conservative views on polls, science, technology, and policy

Kansas Senate: Moran up big, Democrats split

SurveyUSA polls usually bring a wealth of information to those of us without any sort of subscription, but this poll the Kansas Senate primary was conducted for KWCH and we apparently don’t get to see the usual large tables SurveyUSA churns out.

We do get to see who’s winning and who’s losing though, so let’s check on that.

 

Read More | June 29, 2010
Hayworth is in serious trouble

Via Real Clear Politics we see that Magellan Strategies polled the Arizona Senate Primary.

It’s looking very good for John McCain, and JD Hayworth needs a lifeline, quickly.

 

Read More | June 28, 2010
Simulating the latest Cook House ratings

On Thursday the latest House ratings from the Cook Political Report came out. I think it’s high time we re-ran those numbers in a simulation of the national election, and see what the ratings suggest for November.

 

Read More | June 26, 2010
Rossi Ties Murray

It’s the weekend, so I will be brief, but I saw this poll and thought I’d mention it: After so many polls showing him competitive or even close, Dino Rossi has registered a tie with Patty Murray in the Washington Senate race.

 

Read More | June 26, 2010
Reid still hovering near 40

Sharron Angle polled the “worst” against Harry Reid of the three leading Republicans in the Nevada Senate Primary, but she’s maintaining a lead going into the general election.

I let this one simmer for any unity bounces, so let’s take a look at this new poll.

 

Read More | June 25, 2010
Burr collapses?

Wow. Just when I thought both Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen Reports were both showing Richard Burr in good shape, Rasmussen shows his lead down to a single point.

What happened?

 

Read More | June 25, 2010
Wal-mart Moms: This year’s catch phrase?

Wal-Mart decided to do its own generic ballot poll, so it’s no surprise that the cutesy demographic group that’s coming out of it is ‘Wal-Mart Moms.”

But if they’re real, they’re real, right? So who are they?

 

Read More | June 24, 2010
Neck and Neck in New Mexico

(It’d help if I get the state name right, wouldn’t it?)

Via Real Clear Politics we now turn to this Magellan Strategies poll of the New Mexico Governor’s race. New Mexico is a swingy state, capable of going with either party for Senate, Governor, or President, that swung sharply against Republicans in recent years.

But right now the race for Governor is nearly even.

 

Read More | June 24, 2010
Dubie leads all Democrats in Vermont

I’ve been spoiled. After so many primaries, it’s been a while since I had to deal with a big carpet bomb poll of general election possibilities. But today we have another one, as by request I look at Rasmussen’s latest of the Vermont Governor’s race.

 

Read More | June 24, 2010
Landmark shift in the Gallup enthusiasm readings

National Journal noticed an event in the Gallup voter enthusiasm polling: Republicans have gone off the scale, while Democrats have fallen far off from 2006.

Since 1994 the numbers have tracked with victory and defeat, with the party ahead in enthusiasm winning the House, but this scale is… well, just look.

 

Read More | June 24, 2010
One month out for the Georgia Republicans

Roy Barnes seems to have his party’s nomination sewn up for Governor of Georgia, but the Republicans have seven names on the ballot, with three over double figures. SurveyUSA took a look.

Barnes is well over 50 for the Democrats, but a runoff appears certain for the Republicans. The only question is which two will make it?

 

Read More | June 23, 2010
A surprise turn in Wisconsin

Good afternoon, wherever you may be. My apologies for getting today’s poll goodness out late, especially since it’s one I wanted to post yesterday anyway.

But it turns out that, per Rasmussen, the Wisconsin Senate may yet be a race after all, despite the fact that many of us probably tuned it out once Tommy Thompson declined to run.

 

Read More | June 23, 2010
Grading the Pollsters, Utah Senate edition

I only found two polls to look at for the Utah Senate primary between Mike Lee and Tim Bridgewater, but they were pretty far apart from each other.

Let’s see who was closer.

 

Read More | June 23, 2010