Unlikely Voter

Conservative views on polls, science, technology, and policy

Ehrlich takes a lead in Maryland

In sports there’s an old saying that I like to quote: “It’s not a rivalry until both sides win.” I’m thinking it’d be wise to extend that to political polling, and say that a race isn’t truly close until both sides have led.

In that case, the Maryland Governor’s race is truly close now.


Read More | July 5, 2010
Swingometer to the iPhone and iPod Touch

I just completed the submission process for the iPhone® and iPod Touch® Swingometer app. I suppose it should run on the iPad™ but not having one, that’s still a gray area for me. Hopefully the review process is kind and the app will be in the App Store℠ soon. The Swingometer app will cost $0.99 […] 

Read More | July 3, 2010
Dudley takes smallest of leads

I haven’t seen any reason yet for Democrats to worry in the Oregon Senate race, but at this point, anyone could be governor, according to Magellan Strategies who updates us on the race.

It seems Dudley is getting off to a strong start thanks to his basketball career that ended in Oregon.


Read More | July 2, 2010
Yet more Pennsylvania volatility

Rasmussen polled the Pennsylvania Senate race again, and Pat Toomey still leads.

Can Sestak break through and get another surge like his post-primary unity bounce?


Read More | July 1, 2010
Swinging Democracy Corps’ Generic Ballot

So Greenberg Quinlan Rosner did another generic ballot for Democracy Corps, as Democrats try to find messages that will stem the Republican tide.

But how are things looking now, and what does the Swingometer say about it?


Read More | July 1, 2010
A rough sketch of a Senate projection

I’m in the mood to see how the Senate race nationwide looks right now, but I don’t want to rely on RCP or Cook or someone else. I’m going to do it myself. Take it for what it’s worth.


Read More | June 30, 2010
Vitter looking safe

David Vitter appears to be safe. The latest Rasmussen poll of the Louisiana Senate Race has been sitting here for days on my computer, but I just hadn’t gotten around to posting it because it doesn’t appear to be a competitive race.

But let’s get it over with.


Read More | June 30, 2010
Kentucky Senate race stabilizes

I need to make more direct links to Real Clear Politics. I rely on them heavily for their poll aggregation. I just load up the Recent Polls page and I get post ideas all the time.

So here’s a direct link: RCP points out that in the latest Rasmussen poll of the Kentucky Senate Race, there really isn’t any change. The race is stable, with Randal Paul on top.


Read More | June 30, 2010
Fisher leads Portman despite Ohio rejecting the PPACA

We have two new polls to look at on the Ohio Senate race, one from Quinnipiac University and the other from Public Policy Polling.

The results are very similar, so I think it’s pretty safe to say that for the moment, Lee Fisher leads Rob Portman, though by a hair.


Read More | June 30, 2010
Fiorina keeping close to Boxer

Ipsos polled the California Senate race for Reuters and much as I’ve said in the past, Barbara Boxer still comes out looking weak, even though she remains slimly ahead of Carly Fiorina.


Read More | June 29, 2010
Fraud at Research 2000

There are ledes, and there are ledes. This one at Daily Kos literally dropped my jaw:

I have just published a report by three statistics wizards showing, quite convincingly, that the weekly Research 2000 State of the Nation poll we ran the past year and a half was likely bunk.

The report appears to deliver, too.


Read More | June 29, 2010
Kansas Senate: Moran up big, Democrats split

SurveyUSA polls usually bring a wealth of information to those of us without any sort of subscription, but this poll the Kansas Senate primary was conducted for KWCH and we apparently don’t get to see the usual large tables SurveyUSA churns out.

We do get to see who’s winning and who’s losing though, so let’s check on that.


Read More | June 29, 2010
Hayworth is in serious trouble

Via Real Clear Politics we see that Magellan Strategies polled the Arizona Senate Primary.

It’s looking very good for John McCain, and JD Hayworth needs a lifeline, quickly.


Read More | June 28, 2010