Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Daily Kos meets the Likely Voter

PPP has delivered a poll on the Missouri Senate race for Daily Kos, and I’m seeing genuine anger at the results, which are now filtered for those likely to vote in November.

As Kos says, “So what’s going on? Our old friend, the intensity gap.”


Read More | August 17, 2010
Giannoulias leads, but Democrats deeply depressed

I theorized before that Pat Quinn would drag down Alexi Giannoulias in Illinois, with a rout for Governor having reverse coattails for Senate, and now Public Policy Polling seems to show the effects I predicted.

A bad candidate for governor in a negative wave year is a terrible situation for a party to have, but that’s the Democrats in Illinois today.


Read More | August 17, 2010
Fisher fading in Ohio

According to Rasmussen’s latest, Rob Portman is holding a steady level of support in the Ohio Senate race. However the surge of support that Lee Fisher took after his primary win seems to be receding, which leaves Portman alone on top with a clear lead.


Read More | August 17, 2010
The polls are shifting

Two major pollsters have announced changes to their methods as we get nearer to election day. Both of these should bring shifts in the polls which may strike us as sudden or dramatic, so be aware.


Read More | August 17, 2010
Talk about bad timing

Just as I make my last post talking about a trend in the Florida Senate polling, Ipsos’ new poll for the St. Petersburg Times shows the opposite result.


Read More | August 16, 2010
Why I rated Rubio at 55% to win

Some may have questioned why, in my new Senate projection, I had Florida at a 55% chance to win for Republican Marco Rubio, when much of the polling has shown newly minted independent Charlie Crist with tiny leads.

It’s because I saw this new poll from Mason Dixon which not only covered the primary the Democrats are holding, but the consequences of that primary on the general election.


Read More | August 16, 2010
Patrick Ishmael updates his House projection

I was busy today on my Senate projection, but over at Hot Air’s Greenroom Patrick Ishmael updated his House projection yesterday.


Read More | August 13, 2010
Updating my Senate projection

It’s now been nearly two months since I made a projection of the US Senate elections. Since then we’ve had a number of primaries, television ads, polls, and other developments, so let’s see where we stand now.


Read More | August 13, 2010
Boxer falls behind Fiorina, Whitman even with Brown

SurveyUSA polled the California statewide races for San Francisco’s KPIX, a television station for one of the most safe cities in the state for Democrats. This is Nancy Pelosi’s own district here. Any bias introduced into this poll won’t be from the right.

So it’s notable when this poll shows Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman ahead of Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown.


Read More | August 13, 2010
…And Pat Quinn will be bad for Alexi Giannoulias

The Illinois Senate race is already set to be an ugly war, only distinguished from France 1916 by the lack of chemical warfare. Both candidates are hated and have baggage that is not going to go away. Either one can win, though, judging by the polling I’ve seen.

But if Republicans rally around a surging Bill Brady while Pat Quinn polls as poorly as Alexi Giannoulias, then that will only help Mark Kirk, just as I expect in nearby Wisconsin.


Read More | August 12, 2010