Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Fiorina also makes it close in California

Following up on yesterday’s Field release which saw Democrats bleeding the Latino vote in California, this poll of the Senate race brings more personal bad news for Barbara Boxer: her job approval ratings have sunk underwater, joining her personal favorability ratings.

So yes, Barbara Boxer does lead Carly Fiorina 47-44 in the poll (MoE 3.2), making it two straight results that the race’s margin was within the MoE, and giving Boxer a 69% chance of a lead by my math. But up until last time, Field’s results had California approving of her job as Senator. That is no longer the case, as Disapproval is now on top 43-42, and is as high as 48% among Field’s likely voters.

Meanwhile Carly Fiorina is steadily defining herself in the state, and also has the money to be on the air where she wants, when she wants, as she proved during her ad blitz leading up to the June primary.

Boxer is facing the first serious challenge she’s had since winning her Senate seat in 1992. She’s never had to defend herself and her record as she is now. Will she and her campaign react well, and be able to stop the Fiorina momentum? By November, we’ll learn.

In the last Republican wave in California, Republicans re-elected a Governor, elected an Attorney General, and took majorities in both houses of the state Legislature. The Legislative majorities seem unlikely in this era of the lockdown gerrymander, but this time Republicans just might compensate by electing a Senator.

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