I’ve been saying that the results in North Carolina would be a clear decider between the Rasmussen and PPP likely voter models. New polling has made the difference less dramatic, thanks to a Burr surge, but the difference is still there.
Daily Kos has dropped Research 2000 as the site pollster going forward, citing Nate Silver’s poor marks for the firm’s results. I’m glad of this.
Today we have high profile races in South Carolina, Nevada, California, and Arkansas to look back on and see how well the pollsters’ numbers matched the actual results.
As I’m just one person who lacks the luxury of doing this site full time, I’m not ashamed to work off of Real Clear Politics to make these assessments.
PPP’s latest on the South Carolina Governor’s race doesn’t even cover the Democrats. The assumption must be that Vincent Sheheen has it wrapped up, I suppose.
So, on to the Republican side, where Nikki Haley hopes to win an absolute majority and avoid a runoff.
Before we look at some of today’s primary races, here’s Rasmussen’s from a few days back on the Missouri Senate race.
John McCain barely won the state from Barack Obama, and apparently the Senate race is just as close.
Rasmussen has a new generic ballot out, and that means it’s time to see how the Swingometer projects the election to go based on that result.
I’ve been focused on governors lately, so here’s another one of those races. It’s another Rasmussen carpet bomb, this time in Connecticut. Two Democrats, two Republicans, four sets of numbers to chew on.
By request, we take a look at a poll by Wilson Research Strategies via the Palm Beach Post covering Florida’s 22nd congressional district.
We’re in for the long haul in the Pennsylvania Senate race, because I honestly do expect this one to be in the toss-up range from now to Election Day, but that doesn’t mean we don’t get to check in on the polls obsessively the whole time looking for clues.