Poll Analysis and Election Projection
Once again, the polls were pretty close. Mitt Romney’s ground game carried him to overperform. Gingrich underperformed. A 10 point advantage became 14, and Romney approached an absolute majority closer than I imagined he could.
Romney sweeps Florida’s at-large delegates and takes a 66-25 lead among pledged delegates.
When Ron Johnson showed a lead over Russ Feingold in the Wisconsin Senate polling, it could have been a fluky outlier result. The incumbent Democrat could still have been safe.
Rasmussen again has Johnson ahead, though, so that theory is ruled out. The lead is tiny, but looks real.
Opinion Dynamics did a generic ballot poll for Fox News, so we welcome Fox to the Swingometer today. Also polled is the President’s performance on the issues.
I see on the issue of “Race Relations” Barack Obama has +16 net approval at 50/34. I wonder if that will change after his statements on The View yesterday.
I’ve seen a few Republicans express serious doubts about Carly Fiorina after the latest California Senate poll from Public Policy Polling, but I think close inspection of that poll should give one pause before putting too much weight on its results.
Besides, the other new poll, from the Public Policy Institute of California, deep down is as bad for Barbara Boxer as the Republicans could ever hope for.
Up and down, up and down, that’s the story of Richard Burr’s fight against challenger Elaine Marshall. I’m sure he’s much happier to lead than to trail but when he keeps hanging in the mid-40s, and Marshall keeps hanging around in the upper 30s, he’s in a position where he could be knocked off.
Civitas has a new poll out and the story still hasn’t changed.
The big, scary to Republicans headline over at Hotline is Ayotte’s Unfavorable Ratings Rising in UNH Poll.
I’m sure it’s true, but that’s what happens in contested primaries such as the one right now for Republicans in the New Hampshire Senate race. Right now, Bill Binnie’s fans don’t like Kelly Ayotte much, her fans don’t like him much.
We’re now at three polls in a row, counting the new Rasmussen, that show Chris Dudley ahead of John Kitzhaber in Oregon.
Even without a third party candidate mucking up the poll, the Democrat just can’t pull ahead.
Today is apparently the day for House races, because we have another one to look into: the North Dakota at-large race.
We’ve looked at this race before, and it wasn’t promising for incumbent Democrat Earl Pomeroy, but right now he seems to be closing into Republican challenger Rick Berg.
Much like New Hampshire I’ve covered previously, New Mexico was the site of big wins for Democrats in recent years, wiping out the Republican Party.
But now a SurveyUSA poll for KOB of the first Congressional District has Democrat Martin Heinrich so worried, he’s put out an internal poll in response.
Tennessee is the state that most moved away from the Democrats in 2008 at the national level. Barack Obama ran worse there against John McCain than John Kerry did against George Bush.
The Republican trend there seems to continue as Mason-Dixon’s poll of the Governor’s race there for The Tennessean shows every Republican on top.
A simulation of the 2010 House races as charted by the Cook Political Report follows, but right here is all you need to know about who’s favored:
Democrats currently have 66 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.
Republicans currently have 7 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.
Oh and on top of the 66, there are 2 seats held by Democrats which are given over as Likely Republican.
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