Unlikely Voter

Conservative views on polls, science, technology, and policy

Illinois update

I know some pollsters have rushed out to take a look at the primary states immediately after Tuesday’s elections, but we all know that those polls tend to have varying unity bounces. Rick Perry’s took a while in fact.

So I’ll let those races simmer a bit and instead look at Illinois today, as Rasmussen polled the Governor and Senate races.


Read More | June 11, 2010
Movement for Burr in North Carolina

I’ve been saying that the results in North Carolina would be a clear decider between the Rasmussen and PPP likely voter models. New polling has made the difference less dramatic, thanks to a Burr surge, but the difference is still there.


Read More | June 10, 2010
Kos drops Research 2000

Daily Kos has dropped Research 2000 as the site pollster going forward, citing Nate Silver’s poor marks for the firm’s results. I’m glad of this.


Read More | June 9, 2010
Grading the Pollsters: June 8 edition

Today we have high profile races in South Carolina, Nevada, California, and Arkansas to look back on and see how well the pollsters’ numbers matched the actual results.

As I’m just one person who lacks the luxury of doing this site full time, I’m not ashamed to work off of Real Clear Politics to make these assessments.


Read More | June 9, 2010
Haley looking to avoid runoff in today’s primary [Updated x 2]

PPP’s latest on the South Carolina Governor’s race doesn’t even cover the Democrats. The assumption must be that Vincent Sheheen has it wrapped up, I suppose.

So, on to the Republican side, where Nikki Haley hopes to win an absolute majority and avoid a runoff.


Read More | June 8, 2010
Tension in Missouri

Before we look at some of today’s primary races, here’s Rasmussen’s from a few days back on the Missouri Senate race.

John McCain barely won the state from Barack Obama, and apparently the Senate race is just as close.


Read More | June 8, 2010
Swingometer on the Rasmussen Generic Ballot

Rasmussen has a new generic ballot out, and that means it’s time to see how the Swingometer projects the election to go based on that result.


Read More | June 7, 2010
Carpet Bombing Connecticut

I’ve been focused on governors lately, so here’s another one of those races. It’s another Rasmussen carpet bomb, this time in Connecticut. Two Democrats, two Republicans, four sets of numbers to chew on.


Read More | June 7, 2010
West makes a race of it against Klein

By request, we take a look at a poll by Wilson Research Strategies via the Palm Beach Post covering Florida’s 22nd congressional district.


Read More | June 7, 2010
Rasmussen updates on Sestak/Toomey

We’re in for the long haul in the Pennsylvania Senate race, because I honestly do expect this one to be in the toss-up range from now to Election Day, but that doesn’t mean we don’t get to check in on the polls obsessively the whole time looking for clues.

Today: Rasmussen updates on the race.


Read More | June 4, 2010
Michigan seems like a dream to a pollster

It’d take me four days to hitchhike from Saginaw, or to try to fathom what’s going on in the Michigan primaries for Governor. But the races for Governor are important, so I figured I’d at least mention PPP’s latest on the races.


Read More | June 3, 2010
Angle, Tarkanian overtake Lowden

I keep saying that multiway races are volatile. When voters are spread out in more directions, the sums are smaller and it’s easier for big changes to happen.

Suffolk University’s latest on the Nevada Senate primary for the Washington Times seems to be another example of this effect. Sue Lowden has gone from first to last, and Sharron Angle now leads.


Read More | June 3, 2010
Rhode Island Wars: Linc Chafee Strikes Back

Rasmussen has carpet bombed the Rhode Island race for Governor, producing a breathtaking array of numbers to look at.

I’ll do my best to make sense of it all, even if a carpet bombed three way race is about my worst case scenario for clarity.


Read More | June 2, 2010