Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Haslam shows all around lead in Tennessee

Tennessee is the state that most moved away from the Democrats in 2008 at the national level. Barack Obama ran worse there against John McCain than John Kerry did against George Bush.

The Republican trend there seems to continue as Mason-Dixon’s poll of the Governor’s race there for The Tennessean shows every Republican on top.


Read More | July 26, 2010
Cook updates on the House

A simulation of the 2010 House races as charted by the Cook Political Report follows, but right here is all you need to know about who’s favored:

Democrats currently have 66 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.

Republicans currently have 7 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.

Oh and on top of the 66, there are 2 seats held by Democrats which are given over as Likely Republican.


Read More | July 23, 2010
Florida Senate Update

We have a pair of polls to look at updating us on the Florida Senate race, a general election carpet bomb from Rasmussen, and a peek at the race between the Democrats in the primary from PPP.

Unfortunately, what we don’t have is any clarity.


Read More | July 23, 2010
Paul still under 50

Randal Paul never has fully recovered from his initial unforced errors after winning the primary. Which is why Rasmussen Reports, which once showed him up 25 points, has him still lingering under 50 now, though still leading.


Read More | July 22, 2010
Democrats exploiting a divided right in Florida

Florida is a state often friendly to Republicans, but is perfectly capable of voting for Democrats. So I think Republicans do have reason to be concerned about polls like PPP’s of the Governor’s race, but I also expect that Republicans will be better off after the primary.

For now though, Republicans are divided and Alex Sink leads.


Read More | July 21, 2010
More good news for Rob Portman

Since I tried to tell Rob Portman his business, and suggested he was emphasizing the wrong issues in his campaign, two polls have come out covering the Ohio Senate race. Both by Rasmussen, the late June poll had Portman up 4, and now Rasmussen’s July poll has Portman up 6.

I clearly picked the wrong moment to speak up!


Read More | July 21, 2010
Gallup caught lying about the generic ballot trend [Updated 3PM PT]

[Updated at the bottom at 3PM Pacific Time.]

The Gallup Generic Ballot is a trusted, widely reported resource. I’ve analyzed it extensively, and defended it to others. But yesterday, when I covered the poll’s latest release, Gallup lied. I was lied to, you were lied to, everyone who’s trusted the Gallup name got lied to.


Read More | July 21, 2010
Rasmussen and Gallup generic ballots diverge

Until now, Gallup and Rasmussen Reports have generally pointed in the same direction with their generic ballot polls. If they’ve differed, it’s been in the magnitude.

This week, that has changed. How big a difference is it, and what does the Swingometer say about it all? Let’s find out.


Read More | July 20, 2010
Incumbency matters, Alaska Edition

Apparently Governor Sean Parnell is not getting a walk in the Alaska GOP Primary, because Rasmussen Reports carpet bombed that race with three Republicans and two Democrats.


Read More | July 20, 2010
Cutler confusing the issue in Maine

I’d have made a Remember the Maine pun in the title but I think I did that last time. So we’ll cut the cheap gags and get right to the meat: Per the latest Rasmussen poll of the race, independent Eliot Cutler is making life tough for both parties, as nobody is over 40 in the race for Governor.


Read More | July 20, 2010