Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

The race tightens in Maryland

There is more to life than the US Senate. In many states, control of the Governor’s office will have a critical role in the process of redistricting after the 2010 Census and reapportionment of US House seats.

So today we look at the Maryland Governor’s race as polled by Rasmussen.

As with Texas, the incumbent leads, but it’s closer than it was.

Back in 2006, Democrat Martin O’Malley beat Republican Governor Robert Ehrlich 53-46 in a good year for Democrats. In what is expected to be a good year for Republicans, Ehrlich has announced another shot at the big chair, challenging now-Governor O’Malley’s expected run for re-election.

In February it was no surprise that O’Malley led Ehrlich in the Rasmussen poll 49-43 (MoE 4.5), about the same advantage the Governor had in 2006. But that lead has diminished, and is now 47-44, three points and only a 63% chance of being ahead at all anymore.

Like Rick Perry, Martin O’Malley needs to watch his back.

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Comments

2 Responses to “The race tightens in Maryland”

  1. edfromparkheights says:

    unfortunately for erlich the state of maryland is a wholly owned subsidiary of the democratic party. erlich had a 53% approval rating as guv 5 years ago yet lost to OMally who is frankly a scumbag. people will vote omally becuase he is a democrat and despite the fact that they can’t stand him or his progressive policies. i hold out a glimmer of hope but doubt that erlich will win.

  2. There are several differences now:

    1) O’Malley has had 4 years mess things up.
    2) O’Malley is the incumbent and there is an anti-incumbent move afoot.
    3) Often heard, “Oboma, O’Malley, Oh Crap!!”

    Watch a BLUE state become purple!!

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