Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Challenger crosses 50 in South Dakota House Race

South Dakota has only one House seat, so its House elections are full-fledged statewide affairs, and so we get a rare House poll to look at, from Rasmussen Reports.

It’s not looking good for the three term incumbent and Democrat. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is behind Republican Kristi Noem 53-41 (MoE 4.5) for a huge 90% lead probability. It’s hard to be behind when there’s a 95% likelihood that you’re above 48.5, as is the case with Noem. Intersting quote from Rasmussen:

Noem earns 75% support from those voters who Strongly Favor repeal of the health care bill. Herseth-Sandlin gets 75% of the vote of those who are Strongly Opposed.

The PPACA just isn’t popular enough for those Strongly Opposed to repeal to help Sandlin enough.

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One Response to “Challenger crosses 50 in South Dakota House Race”

  1. Rasmussen has this pinned down as a post-primary jump in support for Noem. I suppose time will tell if they are correct.

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