Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Democracy Corps expands on the NPR poll

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner did a poll for Democracy Corps, one that appears to be a followup on the joint GQR/Public Opinion Strategies poll done for NPR.

Does it have better news for Democrats?

It appears not. The “Warm/Cool” favorability numbers are not great for Republicans (though oddly better in the two tiers of likely-to-flip seats held by Democrats, than in the ones held by Republicans)., but they’re positively terrible for Democrats across the board, and even worse for “The Democratic Congress” in particular.

On the issues, in few sets of districts and on few issues do Democrats get a better rating than Republicans do. The Democrats get a few leads on being “Willing to fight special interests,” “Willing to work with the other party,” , “Understanding what people here feel,” and “Standing up for Main Street, not Wall Street,” but of course these are more rhetorical flourishes than concrete issues. I imagine that was the point: Democracy Corps wants to know what kinds of language Democrats should use this year.

However Democrats trail almost uniformly on such issues like “Jobs and employment,” “the Budget Deficit, “Government Spending,” “Taxes,” and “The economy.”

So no, this still looks like a rout in November, should this kind of partisan, and not anti-incumbent, lean continue to show in the electorate of the swing districts. Especially if the election hinges on issues related to the economy, this poll suggests it’s not a good spot for the current House majority to be in.

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