Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Rasmussen and Gallup generic ballots diverge

Until now, Gallup and Rasmussen Reports have generally pointed in the same direction with their generic ballot polls. If they’ve differed, it’s been in the magnitude.

This week, that has changed. How big a difference is it, and what does the Swingometer say about it all? Let’s find out.

We’ve got two polls: Gallup’s which shows a huge swing for the Democrats giving the incumbents a 49-43 lead, mirroring the Republicans’ big lead in May.

We also have Rasmussen’s which continues to shows the Republicans ahead, giving the challengers a 45-36 lead, the biggest in a month.

If we boil these numbers down to the usual two-party splits, here’s what we see:

CategoryDR
2008 two party split5644
Rasmussen two party split July 184456
Gallup two party split July 195347

Enter the Swingometer: Rasmussen takes us from D+12 to R+12 for a 24 point swing to the Republicans, a 64 seat Republican gain, and a 242 R-193 D House majority for the GOP.

Gallup, meanwhile, takes us from D+12 to D+6 for a 6 point swing to the Republicans, an 18 seat Republican gain, and a 239 D-196 R House majority for the Democrats.

So the predicted results are nearly mirror images of each other. Fascinating.

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