Unlikely Voter

Conservative views on polls, science, technology, and policy

Incumbency matters, Alaska Edition

Apparently Governor Sean Parnell is not getting a walk in the Alaska GOP Primary, because Rasmussen Reports carpet bombed that race with three Republicans and two Democrats.

Elected as Lieutenant Governor or not, Sean Parnell shows a clear advantage over his Republican rivals. He leads Ethan Berkowitz 53-34 (MoE 4.5 for all) and Hollis French 57-29, for an average lead probability by my model of 99%.

Bill Walker leads the Democrats, but by 50-32 over French and 46-38 over Berkowitz, for an 89% lead probability average.

Ralph Samuels does better against French than he does againt Berkowitz, unlike the other two, “only” leading Berkowitz 48-36 but beating French 49-30 for a 94% lead average.

They all do well, but Parnell doesn’t give the Democrats any air. Merely being Governor probably explains that edge. In any case though, I don’t expect this race to be competitive unless something happens.

About the one bright spot for Democrats is that Alaska is not likely to do any districting anytime soon, so this race is unlikely to matter nationally.


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