I’d have made a Remember the Maine pun in the title but I think I did that last time. So we’ll cut the cheap gags and get right to the meat: Per the latest Rasmussen poll of the race, independent Eliot Cutler is making life tough for both parties, as nobody is over 40 in the race for Governor.
Sure, Cutler’s in third at 15, but when Paul LePage is at 39 and Libby Mitchell is at 31 (MoE 4.5), the race becomes far less stable. It’s even worse for Democrat Mitchell, though. In a state where the PPACA is only barely opposed (51-45 in favor of repeal), the Democrats would expect to do better. But Cutler is rising on a message that includes limited but universal coverage, and could split the left.
But, other parts of Cutler’s message might appeal more to Republicans, so it will be interesting to follow this race from now to November. Maine may only have two House districts, but you never know if that districting might swing a seat and then swing the whole House.
House of Representatives Swingometer
Electoral College Swingometer
I’m not sure if Mr. Cutler’s candidacy bodes well for the Democrat candidate Libby Mitchell but it won;t hurt Paul LePage’s candidacy all that much.
Mr. Cutler will draw the mostly “conservative” democrats away from VERY liberal Mitchell. His affect on the Republican side of the voter spectrum will be there but minimal.
As his mentor, Edmund Muskie, Mr. Cutler is a Democrat of the ‘old school’ mold so he will get some traction from that, especially for the older Democrats. The ‘younger’ rabid liberal Democrats will fall in line and vote for Ms. Mitchell who is only slightly to the right of President Obama.
Mr. LePage’s rise from poverty to self sufficiency plays well to the Yankee self reliance that pervades the bulk of Maine’s population. Once you get away from the “big cities” (Portland, Bangor, South Portland) and the “deep south” Southern York County you find a very independent “leave us alone” attitude that neither Mitchell nor Cutler show not play to in their campaigns.
If Mr. LePage plays it smart and shows how the current Economic philosophies pervading both the Congress and the State Legislature mirror the attitudes that prevailed and are now being painfully overcome in Europe I believe he can win convincingly.
From ME to you, firmly ensconced in the “deep south” of Maine!