Unlikely Voter

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A simulation of the 2010 House races as charted by the Cook Political Report follows, but right here is all you need to know about who’s favored:

Democrats currently have 66 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.

Republicans currently have 7 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.

Oh and on top of the 66, there are 2 seats held by Democrats which are given over as Likely Republican.

As usual, I will simulate the races by assigning all seats not listed as having a 0% to be given to the other party, seats listed as Likely for a party having a 1% chance of a flip, seats listed as Lean having a 10% chance, and seats listed as Toss-Up having a 50% chance.

As mentioned above, Democrats hold (or held, in the case of the NY-29 vacancy) 66 of the seats listed, while Republicans hold 7. However after simulating the race 100,000 times, Republicans gain 21 of those seats as a mean and modal outcome. This is up one from my last simulation of the Cook ratings a month ago.

For context, at this point last time Democrats were set to gain 9 or 10 seats, compared with the 21 they won in November.

Should Republicans by November double their gain to 42, as the Democrats did, it will be enough to take the House of Representatives.