Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Connie Mack a threat in Florida?

I’m a proponent of applying mathematical principles to poll analysis because our intuition is often wrong. The human mind deals poorly with randomness.

However I don’t feel I need any math to conclude that Connie Mack IV runs better against Bill Nelson than do other Republicans in the Florida Senate race.

 

Read More | March 16, 2012
The Maine problem the Democrats face in 2012

Senate polling comes and goes lately, and primary polling is even harder to get. Pollsters seem to get more attention when they make these premature Presidential general election matchups.

But we got some Maine Senate polling from PPP just in time to get wind of some possible machinations in that race. Could Democrats be clearing the way for independent Angus King?

 

Read More | March 14, 2012
Kansas answers the question: What about a two-man race?

Some opponents of Mitt Romney as Republican nominee have long insisted that once it’s a two-man race for the nomination, Romney will lose.

Saturday’s results suggest otherwise. Even on a good night for Rick Santorum, he only treaded water.

 

Read More | March 12, 2012
Bob Kerrey’s unfriendly welcome back to Nebraska politics

Medal of Honor recipient, former Senator, and former Governor Bob Kerrey has announced he will run for Senate in Nebraska to replace Ben Nelson, the man who replaced him in the Senate. Common sense suggests a multiple-time statewide winner with a distinguished personal history would be a favorite to win the open seat.

New polling however suggests Kerrey is a large underdog to Republican Jon Bruning.

 

Read More | March 9, 2012
Josh Mandel wins. Can he beat Sherrod Brown in Ohio?

While everyone focused on Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum in Ohio, a major Senate matchup was finalized in the state. Treasurer Josh Mandel was chosen as the Republican challenger to Senator Sherrod Brown.

Brown took advantage of a crippled Ohio GOP and a second midterm wave to knock off a two term incumbent. But can he keep this battleground state seat?

 

Read More | March 8, 2012
Mitt Romney short but in reach of the majority

When three candidates hang into the Presidential nomination race after Super Tuesday, it becomes time to check whether anyone can get a majority.

Mitt Romney is close. So far he’s not there, but if current trends hold he will be the Republican nominee for President of the United States, and become so on the first ballot.

 

Read More | March 7, 2012
Mittmentum moves to Ohio, Gingrich leads Georgia on a true Super Tuesday

The Republican party has held five primaries this cycle to date: New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Michigan, and Arizona. Mitt Romney won the statewide vote in four of them, including the last three.

Super Tuesday tomorrow will shake all that up, of course. But Ohio looks to be one state Romney may come back to win from Rick Santorum.

 

Read More | March 5, 2012
Primary Day update of Michigan and Arizona

Last I looked at these two Republican Presidential primaries, the first primaries since Florida and the first binding races since Nevada, I called it Mittmentum.

I was right about Arizona. Michigan though has remained complicated.

 

Read More | February 28, 2012
Mittmentum in Michigan and Arizona

Last week it looked possible that Rick Santorum would keep on winning in February with a big lead in Michigan and a possible lead change in Arizona.

New polling this week though suggests Mitt Romney’s back, and could regain control of the race.

 

Read More | February 21, 2012
Michigan and Arizona Poll Update

Today’s Twitter talk is focusing on the March 1 debate in Georgia, but the Arizona and Michigan primaries come two days before then.

And it’s looking good for Rick Santorum over Mitt Romney, even in Michigan, the state that was Romney’s big win last time, and where George Romney was once Governor.

 

Read More | February 16, 2012