Poll Analysis and Election Projection
New York Magazine was trying to be sympathetic to the popular polling figures on its own side of the political, but let out a secret in the process: Public Policy Polling cooked the books all along.
Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst wants to be the next Senator from Texas. All he should have to do is win the Republican primary. The last Democrats to represent Texas in each Senate class were Lloyd Bentsen and Lyndon Johnson.
It’s looking good for him too, but not as good as it could be.
We were spoiled by the New Hampshire and South Carolina polling. Those states weren’t stagnant in voter opinion, but they at least moved at reasonable speeds, and allowed for a clear understanding of what was going on.
Florida is different. After swinging 20 points to Newt Gingrich, has now gone 10-15 points right back to Mitt Romney.
When word came out of InsiderAdvantage’s new Florida poll, I said to myself “I’ve heard this story before.” Newt Gingrich shooting up like a rocket, but confirmation is needed.
Republicans are voting today in South Carolina. And as we’ve seen since New Hampshire, the polling has been pretty consistent. The debates, the exits from the race, and all the momentum seem to have benefited one man: Newt Gingrich.
If Gingrich doesn’t come in first in South Carolina today, it will be a large upset.
I said earlier today “One poll, one time, from one pollster, when two others disagree, does not make a surge.” Since then, Rasmussen Reports has announced and PPP has teased polls that confirm the Gingrich lead that InsiderAdvantage showed.
And then Rick Perry quit the race, endorsing Newt Gingrich.
InsiderAdvantage polled South Carolina just a few days ago on the 15th, and Mitt Romney had a 32-21 lead on Newt Gingrich.
NewsMax had them poll again on the 18th, and the results were different. Gingrich takes his first SC poll lead in a month.
Political commentators want action and excitement. I’m included in this; I’ve been holding off and holding off on posting on the new polling in case something exciting happened.
It hasn’t. Mitt Romney’s just ahead, folks. And I expect his lead will only grow with Jon Huntsman out.
InsiderAdvantage appears to be the first out of the gate in South Carolina after Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary. As expected, South Carolina is showing movement from New Hampshire, the way New Hampshire and South Carolina showed movement from Iowa.
At least, Rick Santorum is down and Jon Huntsman is up. Sticking out though is the lack of any gain for Mitt Romney.
I made a big deal about the polling in Iowa being skewed. However I have no reason to suspect oddness in the New Hampshire polling going into today. Open primaries are much easier to poll than closed caucuses.
Jon Huntsman has rebounded rapidly, but he’ll likely finish behind Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.
Three quick polls of New Hampshire came out this week to try to measure the effect of Iowa on New Hampshire. Predictably, the top three of Iowa are now the top three in New Hampshire.
This matters most to the one candidate that put nothing into Iowa and everything into New Hampshire: Jon Huntsman.
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