Unlikely Voter

Conservative views on polls, science, technology, and policy

From North Carolina… a poll.

North Carolina was President Obama’s narrowest win in 2008. I’ve long thought that the state would be the quickest, easiest pickup for Republicans in 2012. As the final matchup between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney shapes up, early polling begins to confirm that guess.

 

Read More | April 14, 2012
Delegate count update proves Santorum’s exit correct

I’m back. The last ten days have seen me move cross country and start to settle in to a new home and a new job.

While I was gone, we had some primaries. So it’s high time we took a look at the delegate situation. Of course, since I started writing this post, word has come out that Rick Santorum is exiting the race, so let’s see if that was the right idea.  

Read More | April 10, 2012
Quinnipiac: Romney better in Pennsylvania than Ohio

Quinnipiac University put out a pair of polls this week I thought were interesting to note. Now, I have and still do think that it’s too soon to test general election Presidential matchups, so don’t think I’m reading a lot into these. But apart from that, I find it odd that Mitt Romney is doing better in Pennsylvania than he is in Ohio.

 

Read More | March 29, 2012
Coal policy could swing the election

Forgive me for venturing out from strict horserace poll analysis, but given the the administration’s recent moves on coal power, I couldn’t help but wonder how that might affect the President in swing states, should prices rise in coal-burning states.

A check I made this morning suggests that the answer is yes, if coal is an issue in this election, it could swing close states.

 

Read More | March 27, 2012
Delegate Majority update: Santorum’s last stand?

Since we last looked at the delegate situation, Rick Santorum has won two state primaries, and Mitt Romney picked up a state caucus, a territorial primary, and a territorial caucus.

Santorum showing the ability to win state primaries is good news for him, but he must now convert that ability into delegates, or this race may be effectively over anyway.

 

Read More | March 20, 2012
Conflicting polls in the Massachusetts Senate Race

I’m happiest when all the polls in a race match up. It means we have a very good idea of how a race is going for the candidates in it.

So, naturally, I’m not happy about the Massachusetts Senate race right now. Seeing a 10 point swing from poll to poll, giving both candidates opposing 5 point leads, means we have to dig deeper to figure out what’s going on.

 

Read More | March 20, 2012
Steelman over 50% vs McCaskill in Missouri

I’m glad that we’re now starting to have a better idea of the shape of the Senate race, as we settle down on who the candidates are going to be, and how they’re polling against incumbents (or each other, in the case of open seats). Soon I will update my Senate projections with actual data.

In the meantime, we’ve got the first Missouri Senate poll in two months. Sarah Steelman polls an absolute majority over incumbent Claire McCaskill.

 

Read More | March 19, 2012
Connie Mack a threat in Florida?

I’m a proponent of applying mathematical principles to poll analysis because our intuition is often wrong. The human mind deals poorly with randomness.

However I don’t feel I need any math to conclude that Connie Mack IV runs better against Bill Nelson than do other Republicans in the Florida Senate race.

 

Read More | March 16, 2012
The Maine problem the Democrats face in 2012

Senate polling comes and goes lately, and primary polling is even harder to get. Pollsters seem to get more attention when they make these premature Presidential general election matchups.

But we got some Maine Senate polling from PPP just in time to get wind of some possible machinations in that race. Could Democrats be clearing the way for independent Angus King?

 

Read More | March 14, 2012
Kansas answers the question: What about a two-man race?

Some opponents of Mitt Romney as Republican nominee have long insisted that once it’s a two-man race for the nomination, Romney will lose.

Saturday’s results suggest otherwise. Even on a good night for Rick Santorum, he only treaded water.

 

Read More | March 12, 2012
Bob Kerrey’s unfriendly welcome back to Nebraska politics

Medal of Honor recipient, former Senator, and former Governor Bob Kerrey has announced he will run for Senate in Nebraska to replace Ben Nelson, the man who replaced him in the Senate. Common sense suggests a multiple-time statewide winner with a distinguished personal history would be a favorite to win the open seat.

New polling however suggests Kerrey is a large underdog to Republican Jon Bruning.

 

Read More | March 9, 2012
Josh Mandel wins. Can he beat Sherrod Brown in Ohio?

While everyone focused on Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum in Ohio, a major Senate matchup was finalized in the state. Treasurer Josh Mandel was chosen as the Republican challenger to Senator Sherrod Brown.

Brown took advantage of a crippled Ohio GOP and a second midterm wave to knock off a two term incumbent. But can he keep this battleground state seat?

 

Read More | March 8, 2012
Mitt Romney short but in reach of the majority

When three candidates hang into the Presidential nomination race after Super Tuesday, it becomes time to check whether anyone can get a majority.

Mitt Romney is close. So far he’s not there, but if current trends hold he will be the Republican nominee for President of the United States, and become so on the first ballot.

 

Read More | March 7, 2012