Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

So are Allen and Kaine really tied?

The Washington Post found that among Registered Voters, Tim Kaine and George Allen are tied at 46 in the Virginia Senate race.

Virginia Virtucon’s Riley thinks that’s a bit misleading, though.

I guess in theory the poll could be accurate, but when the poll is apparently projecting a sharp (more than one quarter) drop in the Republican share of the vote, driving it down below 1964 levels, I’m skeptical.

Whether it’s just an outlier, or a greater methodological problem, I can’t say. But I’m not about to call the race tied based on this poll.

Comments

One Response to “So are Allen and Kaine really tied?”

  1. Randolph Byrd says:

    Actually Allen should be ahead by a few points. The 8% that said “undecided or some other candidate” would currently be supporting Jackson or Marshall against George Allen, but once he secures the nomination, they would fold for him. Kaine has Democratic challenger.

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