Rather than look at just one state, I thought it might be interesting to see what Swingometer has to say about a national poll, and as it turns out, the most recent national poll is the tracking poll from Rasmussen Reports.
This one is much better news for Mitt Romney than the North Carolina poll was.
The result is Romney 48, Obama 43, which turns out to be a two-party split of Romney 52.7-Obama 47.3 (R+5.4). The actual 2008 popular vote was McCain 45.7, Obama 52.9 (D+7.2). Together, that’s a swing of R+12.6, a large change from 2008.
Asking Swingometer, we find that a swing that large results in a clear win for Mitt Romney. He picks up Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, as well as NE-2 and ME-2.
It’s terribly early of course. It’ll be a while before we get other pollsters trying a likely voter model. But while we wait, what else do we have to look at?