Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

From North Carolina… a poll.

North Carolina was President Obama’s narrowest win in 2008. I’ve long thought that the state would be the quickest, easiest pickup for Republicans in 2012. As the final matchup between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney shapes up, early polling begins to confirm that guess.

500 likely voters, MoE 4.5. Rasmussen Reports finds that North Carolina is still pretty close, with a result of Romney 46, Obama 44. Still though, that’s a swing of a few points right off the bat. In a two-party vote, that’s a swing from 50-50 to 51-49, or R+2.

By itself, that swing is not enough to change the final vote though. According to the Swingometer, 2 points only flips Indiana, North Carolina, and Nebraska’s 2nd district. That still results in a 332-206 win for the President.

Mitt Romney needs a larger nationwide swing, or at least a larger swing in close Obama states, in order to be the next President. But, it’s early yet. Republicans will take some time to unify I suspect, and when that happens, I expect North Carolina to be out of reach for the President.

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