Poll Analysis with Lord Pollington
Opinion Research polled California, Florida, and Kentucky for CNN and Time. The results seem off from those of other recent polls. Let’s find out why.
Good afternoon. My life gets much easier when polls agree, and that’s the state of the race for the Senate in Pennsylvania. We have two polls out directly comparing Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Joe Sestak, as well as a poll on the Governor’s race.
All three favor Pat Toomey by a healthy margin.
PPP has delivered a poll on the Missouri Senate race for Daily Kos, and I’m seeing genuine anger at the results, which are now filtered for those likely to vote in November.
As Kos says, “So what’s going on? Our old friend, the intensity gap.”
I theorized before that Pat Quinn would drag down Alexi Giannoulias in Illinois, with a rout for Governor having reverse coattails for Senate, and now Public Policy Polling seems to show the effects I predicted.
A bad candidate for governor in a negative wave year is a terrible situation for a party to have, but that’s the Democrats in Illinois today.
According to Rasmussen’s latest, Rob Portman is holding a steady level of support in the Ohio Senate race. However the surge of support that Lee Fisher took after his primary win seems to be receding, which leaves Portman alone on top with a clear lead.
Two major pollsters have announced changes to their methods as we get nearer to election day. Both of these should bring shifts in the polls which may strike us as sudden or dramatic, so be aware.
Just as I make my last post talking about a trend in the Florida Senate polling, Ipsos’ new poll for the St. Petersburg Times shows the opposite result.
Some may have questioned why, in my new Senate projection, I had Florida at a 55% chance to win for Republican Marco Rubio, when much of the polling has shown newly minted independent Charlie Crist with tiny leads.
It’s because I saw this new poll from Mason Dixon which not only covered the primary the Democrats are holding, but the consequences of that primary on the general election.
I was busy today on my Senate projection, but over at Hot Air’s Greenroom Patrick Ishmael updated his House projection yesterday.
It’s now been nearly two months since I made a projection of the US Senate elections. Since then we’ve had a number of primaries, television ads, polls, and other developments, so let’s see where we stand now.
SurveyUSA polled the California statewide races for San Francisco’s KPIX, a television station for one of the most safe cities in the state for Democrats. This is Nancy Pelosi’s own district here. Any bias introduced into this poll won’t be from the right.
So it’s notable when this poll shows Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman ahead of Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown.
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