Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Checking in on the polls after the last caucuses

When I left for CPAC, Mitt Romney had just won the Nevada caucuses 50-21 over Newt Gingrich, numbers reasonably in line with the last poll, by Public Policy Polling.

In DC I found out Rick Santorum came out of nowhere and did well in Minnesota, Colorado, and Missouri. Let’s see if the polls caught it.

 

Read More | February 15, 2012
Apologies for going quiet

The big story this week has been the Rick Santorum sweep in the elections. What I should be doing right now is checking whether the polls actually caught it.

But I’m away from most of my tools. The iPad is great but it’s not what I want to use for synthesizing a half dozen different sources into one post.

 

Read More | February 9, 2012
Counting the votes in Florida

Once again, the polls were pretty close. Mitt Romney’s ground game carried him to overperform. Gingrich underperformed. A 10 point advantage became 14, and Romney approached an absolute majority closer than I imagined he could.

Romney sweeps Florida’s at-large delegates and takes a 66-25 lead among pledged delegates.

 

Read More | February 1, 2012
Florida update: Mitt Romney to win by 10

It’s popular to talk down polling, but from where I sit, the polling of the primaries has been pretty good. Yes, Iowa was terrible, but that was a caucus. The primary polling has been solid.

Florida’s polling has lined up in a nice, neat band for every candidate, making it easy to say Mitt Romney is going to win tomorrow.

 

Read More | January 30, 2012
David Dewhurst leads in Texas, but it’s not sewn up

Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst wants to be the next Senator from Texas. All he should have to do is win the Republican primary. The last Democrats to represent Texas in each Senate class were Lloyd Bentsen and Lyndon Johnson.

It’s looking good for him too, but not as good as it could be.

 

Read More | January 27, 2012
Huge Romney bounce in Florida

We were spoiled by the New Hampshire and South Carolina polling. Those states weren’t stagnant in voter opinion, but they at least moved at reasonable speeds, and allowed for a clear understanding of what was going on.

Florida is different. After swinging 20 points to Newt Gingrich, has now gone 10-15 points right back to Mitt Romney.

 

Read More | January 26, 2012
Huge Gingrich bounce in Florida

When word came out of InsiderAdvantage’s new Florida poll, I said to myself “I’ve heard this story before.” Newt Gingrich shooting up like a rocket, but confirmation is needed.

Rasmussen provided the confirmation.

 

Read More | January 23, 2012
Gingrich to win, and win big

Republicans are voting today in South Carolina. And as we’ve seen since New Hampshire, the polling has been pretty consistent. The debates, the exits from the race, and all the momentum seem to have benefited one man: Newt Gingrich.

If Gingrich doesn’t come in first in South Carolina today, it will be a large upset.

 

Read More | January 21, 2012
Quick update: Gingrich is ahead

I said earlier today “One poll, one time, from one pollster, when two others disagree, does not make a surge.” Since then, Rasmussen Reports has announced and PPP has teased polls that confirm the Gingrich lead that InsiderAdvantage showed.

And then Rick Perry quit the race, endorsing Newt Gingrich.

 

Read More | January 19, 2012
One pollster gives Gingrich South Carolina surge, others disagree

InsiderAdvantage polled South Carolina just a few days ago on the 15th, and Mitt Romney had a 32-21 lead on Newt Gingrich.

NewsMax had them poll again on the 18th, and the results were different. Gingrich takes his first SC poll lead in a month.

 

Read More | January 19, 2012