Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Before Huntsman quit, polling stability in South Carolina

Political commentators want action and excitement. I’m included in this; I’ve been holding off and holding off on posting on the new polling in case something exciting happened.

It hasn’t. Mitt Romney’s just ahead, folks. And I expect his lead will only grow with Jon Huntsman out.

 

Read More | January 16, 2012
South Carolina: Huntsman up, but not Romney?

InsiderAdvantage appears to be the first out of the gate in South Carolina after Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary. As expected, South Carolina is showing movement from New Hampshire, the way New Hampshire and South Carolina showed movement from Iowa.

At least, Rick Santorum is down and Jon Huntsman is up. Sticking out though is the lack of any gain for Mitt Romney.

 

Read More | January 12, 2012
Primary Day in New Hampshire

I made a big deal about the polling in Iowa being skewed. However I have no reason to suspect oddness in the New Hampshire polling going into today. Open primaries are much easier to poll than closed caucuses.

Jon Huntsman has rebounded rapidly, but he’ll likely finish behind Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.

 

Read More | January 10, 2012
Romney still leading, Huntsman out of the Hunt in New Hampshire?

Three quick polls of New Hampshire came out this week to try to measure the effect of Iowa on New Hampshire. Predictably, the top three of Iowa are now the top three in New Hampshire.

This matters most to the one candidate that put nothing into Iowa and everything into New Hampshire: Jon Huntsman.

 

Read More | January 6, 2012
I was right and the polls were wrong about Ron Paul in Iowa

According to CNN, both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are set to win 6 delegates thanks to their close 1-2 finish in the Iowa caucuses. Ron Paul fell to third place. He didn’t win, and he fell further and further behind as the votes were counted last night.

Not one poll projected Ron Paul to drop to third, and PPP stuck to Paul being in first. I said those polls weren’t predictive. They weren’t. I was right.

 

Read More | January 4, 2012
Today’s the big day in Iowa

I went way out on a limb saying Ron Paul does not win the Iowa caucuses, even when he led a bunch of polls. I still say now that Ron Paul will underperform the polls because the turnout model is unrealistic.

Tonight we find out the truth.

 

Read More | January 3, 2012
Romney makes a breakthrough

Newt Gingrich had about six weeks at the top or tied, but that run is over. Gallup has shown a slow decline for the Speaker, and now Mitt Romney benefits. He takes his first national lead since early November.

Just in time for the actual delegate selection process to begin.

 

Read More | December 31, 2011
Iowa Poll Update: This news is ridiculous

Rick Santorum. Now? Seriously? This is ridiculous. How are prognosticators supposed to do our jobs if we get a break so late it makes Mike Huckabee look like an early frontrunner? Seriously, Iowa, simmer down now.

All I know is Ron Paul isn’t winning. Beyond that, anything’s possible.

 

Read More | December 29, 2011
Michele Bachmann fails Reading Polls 101

Via Jim Geraghty I find that Michele Bachmann is playing fast and loose with the “statistical dead heat” terminology.

It’s bad enough when people pretend that the Margin of Error is a band of uniform probability, and not a bell curve where the extremes are unlikely. But what Bachmann’s email is saying is beyond belief.

 

Read More | December 22, 2011
Lazy University Polling skews toward Ron Paul [Corrected]

Another poll is out, and this one doesn’t even try to model what the actual caucus electorate will look like. So again, Ron Paul leads, and I’m still way out on that limb saying it’s not predictive.

Correction: I misread the news article.

 

Read More | December 21, 2011