Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Yet more Pennsylvania volatility

Rasmussen polled the Pennsylvania Senate race again, and Pat Toomey still leads.

Can Sestak break through and get another surge like his post-primary unity bounce?

Every time Sestak gets close, as he did last time, Toomey pulls away again. This time he’s jumped ahead 45-39 (MoE 4.5), possibly on the back of 54-42 support for PPACA repeal.

Some of the difference may be a PPP/Rasmussen secret sauce split of different likely voter models, though. But nobody’s yet picking Sestak to win, so we don’t yet have a clear test for the two pollsters.

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