Unlikely Voter

Conservative views on polls, science, technology, and policy

Hayworth is in serious trouble

Via Real Clear Politics we see that Magellan Strategies polled the Arizona Senate Primary.

It’s looking very good for John McCain, and JD Hayworth needs a lifeline, quickly.

This isn’t even looking competitive looking at this point. McCain leads 52-29. Even with the eyebrow-raising MoE of 9.9, Hayworth only manages a 13% chance of a lead per this poll.

That is, even if this poll is way off in ways that are entirely unfavorable to Hayworth, and not the opposite as the Margin of Error says it can be, we’re still rather likely to see McCain leading. Honestly if this poll weren’t a total blowout, the MoE would make it nearly meaningless. But it is a blowout.

Hayworth must start gaining quickly or this race is probably over.


One Response to “Hayworth is in serious trouble”

  1. Scott Eiland says:

    I like JD and I’d vote for him if I were Arizonan.

    But I wonder if some folks out there are worried that he’ll pull a macaca during the campaign…or if he’s really an improvement over the known quantity that is McCain.

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