Unlikely Voter

Conservative views on polls, science, technology, and policy

Florida update: Mitt Romney to win by 10

It’s popular to talk down polling, but from where I sit, the polling of the primaries has been pretty good. Yes, Iowa was terrible, but that was a caucus. The primary polling has been solid.

Florida’s polling has lined up in a nice, neat band for every candidate, making it easy to say Mitt Romney is going to win tomorrow.

Real Clear Politics, the indispensable feed of the latest polls, shows 7 polls ending the weekend, and 4 more ending Friday. They all put Mitt Romney in a range of 36-44. To see an 8 point range over 11 polls is not surprising when the polls all have margins of error around 3-5. Newt Gingrich? He’s shown in a range of 26-32, a 6 point range in the same circumstances.

We’re in that rare and special spot when we have so many polls taken all at once, that the statistical properties of polling become visually apparent. We can reasonably project from these polls that Mitt Romney’s true value is at 40. Newt Gingrich’s true value 29. Rick Santorum shows up at 13.5. Ron Paul clocks in with a 9.5.

So, as a result of the wealth of the polling we’re seeing, barring some very last minute, unexpected news like Rick Santorum dropping out today, I’m expecting a double-digit Mitt Romney win tomorrow, but he’ll come short of a majority. I still expect us to start seeing majority wins by Super Tuesday, though.


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