Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Huge Gingrich bounce in Florida

When word came out of InsiderAdvantage’s new Florida poll, I said to myself “I’ve heard this story before.” Newt Gingrich shooting up like a rocket, but confirmation is needed.

Rasmussen provided the confirmation.

When InsiderAdvantage was out first with Gingrich’s South Carolina jump, I posted quickly to say we needed confirmation, only to get that confirmation hours later. This time I waited, and it paid off.

So here we are: Two polls, Rasmussen with 750 LV and MoE 4, InsiderAdvantage with 557 LV and also a listed MoE of 4. Insider Advantage has more undecideds, so that the absolute numbers are different, but they’re close and the gap is the same.

Ras: Gingrich 41, Romney 32. Rick Santorum and Ron Paul battle for third at 11 and 8. IA: Gingrich 34, Romney 26. Paul passes Santorum with an 13-11 margin.

Early voting throws an interesting kink into this polling, as it draws somewhat of a distinction between polling current opinion and predicting who will win, but this looks like the same pattern we saw in South Carolina: Gingrich, then [Romney], then Gingrich again at the end.

Comments

One Response to “Huge Gingrich bounce in Florida”

  1. Three reasons why I will vote for Newt.

    First, and foremost, he is a fighter! I want a fighter as my leader. I need a fighter as my leader. I know about his past in congress, and his stepping down as house leader reminds me of how much I dislike the republican congress that has spit on us since we put them in power. I also am extremely impressed with his will and ability to stand up for what he believes. That fire in his belly gives me confidence that when he gets into office he won’t fold like a wilted flower like the republican congress has. Think of Paton and the solider he slapped. Mistake? Yes. Make’s him less of a down and dirty fighter? No.

    Second, he is willing to admit mistakes and change course. Everyone makes mistakes. It’s the one that hold onto their mistakes that cause the most damage. Newt, while being an extremely intelligent debater and strategist, he also has a sense of humility in his core which allows him to remember that it is still the people who lead not the establishment.

    Finally, he has big ideas. Once a president is elected, to move the direction of the government, he will have to make huge turns or we will still be pointed towards the waterfall edge. These big ideas inspire and that inspiration is the same energy Reagan tapped into when he was running and in office. That stance that America IS great and that American’s ARE hard working is what makes me believe that he will support our beliefs in spite of the liberal positions that we are racist gluttons that are blinded by our religion.

    I am tire of electing leaders who brag of how much that will stand up for our beliefs while compromising and then once they get into office they only compromise. It makes me sick to my core. I want someone who stands up for my positions. Whether the country as a whole believes that, at least stand up straight and give the position a chance. In the past they have stood up during the elections and bent over once they were in office. I do not see that happening with Newt.

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