When word came out of InsiderAdvantage’s new Florida poll, I said to myself “I’ve heard this story before.” Newt Gingrich shooting up like a rocket, but confirmation is needed.
When InsiderAdvantage was out first with Gingrich’s South Carolina jump, I posted quickly to say we needed confirmation, only to get that confirmation hours later. This time I waited, and it paid off.
So here we are: Two polls, Rasmussen with 750 LV and MoE 4, InsiderAdvantage with 557 LV and also a listed MoE of 4. Insider Advantage has more undecideds, so that the absolute numbers are different, but they’re close and the gap is the same.
Ras: Gingrich 41, Romney 32. Rick Santorum and Ron Paul battle for third at 11 and 8. IA: Gingrich 34, Romney 26. Paul passes Santorum with an 13-11 margin.
Early voting throws an interesting kink into this polling, as it draws somewhat of a distinction between polling current opinion and predicting who will win, but this looks like the same pattern we saw in South Carolina: Gingrich, then [Romney], then Gingrich again at the end.