Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Gingrich to win, and win big

Republicans are voting today in South Carolina. And as we’ve seen since New Hampshire, the polling has been pretty consistent. The debates, the exits from the race, and all the momentum seem to have benefited one man: Newt Gingrich.

If Gingrich doesn’t come in first in South Carolina today, it will be a large upset.

We had four polls out on the 18th, and three since Perry quit. Mitt Romney only shows a lead in one, the very oldest that was out on the 17th and the 18th. Every poll since has Gingrich ahead. Only one poll since has Romney over 30, while every poll has Gingrich over 30.

My estimated lead probabilities for the various post-Rick Perry polls that RCP has up: 96% (PPP), 73% (Clemson), 81% (Older PPP). Going back before that, with Perry still included, 66% (InsiderAdvantage), 59% (Rasmussen). To me, these figures clarify the trend. Rick Perry kept Mitt Romney close. When he left, the race became Newt Gingrich’s to lose.

And now we’re all left like those cameras in Charleston: watching and waiting.

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