Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

David Dewhurst leads in Texas, but it’s not sewn up

Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst wants to be the next Senator from Texas. All he should have to do is win the Republican primary. The last Democrats to represent Texas in each Senate class were Lloyd Bentsen and Lyndon Johnson.

It’s looking good for him too, but not as good as it could be.

Dewhurst has a hurdle to get over: TEA party activists who would rather he not win. Fortunately for him though, he’s doing better than Charlie Crist was in January 2010, as at that point Marco Rubio had tied the Florida Senate race.

The would-be Next Marco Rubio, former Solicitor General Ted Cruz, has not tied this race. In fact, a recent poll by Mike Baselice shows Cruz in third. Dewhurst leads the poll of 600 Republican LVs, MoE 4, the poll itself promoted by the Dewhurst campaign says the Austin American-Statesman. That’s great news for him.

The bad news for him though is that he’s just barely doing well enough to avoid a runoff. Dewhurst 50, former Mayor Tom Leppert 9, Cruz 5, Craig James 3, Glenn Addison 1 is a huge lead for Dewhurst. It suggests that Dewhurst is the favorite in the primary, is about even money to avoid a runoff, and would be a favorite in the runoff as he bests his combined competition 50-18.

But 50-18 means there are lots of undecided Texas Republicans. His opposition is much less known per a recent Public Policy Polling survey that put Leppert at 63% no opinion, Cruz at 69%, and James at 67% versus Dewhurst’s 40%. That leaves room both for Dewhurst’s lead to shrink, and for some people to change their minds.

David Dewhurst has a lead he can be happy about, but he hasn’t sewn up this race. We could yet see movement as we did in Florida 2010.

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