Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

My baseline Senate projection for 2012

It’s that time again, when we start looking at the Congressional elections of this cycle. The House is a mess to project thanks to redistricting, so let’s start with the Senate this year.

It’s early though, so I’m calling my initial projection a “naive” projection, because I don’t know who the candidates are going to be, not yet.

 

Read More | November 21, 2011
Fun with Real Clear Politics

Just for kicks, I’ve taken the Real Clear Politics chart of the Republican race and done two things with it. First, I eliminated all candidates but Rick Perry and Herman Cain. Second, I shifted Herman Cain back about 45 days, and up about 5 points.

Red is Cain. Blue is Perry. The shapes of the peaks look pretty similar to me.

 

Read More | November 17, 2011
Newt Gingrich takes two of the last three, Cain in third

Last we looked at the national polling, it was effectively a three way tie in the Republican race, with Rick Perry bringing up the rear.

Now it looks like as this week has gone on, Newt Gingrich has continued to rise at Herman Cain’s expense.

 

Read More | November 17, 2011
Republican Chaos

Chaos: Mathematically, we see it when small changes to the inputs of a function produce large, wild changes to the outputs. I believe we’re seeing that now in the GOP primary race, as a weakened Herman Cain and a strengthened Newt Gingrich, combined with a steady Mitt Romney and a resilient Rick Perry, turn it into a four cornered brawl.

 

Read More | November 14, 2011
Sample sizes and their limits

I often counsel activists not to worry overly much about sample sizes. They look small, but the math works out because probabilities of independent events multiply, and the sampling of every respondent is an independent, random event.

But as Ed Morrissey points out, NBC’s new poll really is tiny. The MoE is 10.

 

Read More | November 14, 2011
The state of the GOP Primaries last week

I promised last week that Newt Gingrich would get a slot in the next graphic, so here it is. When you finish in second or tied for second in the last two national polls, you’ve earned it.

For the first time in a while though, I can’t really say for sure who’s ahead. I don’t know that the Republicans have a frontrunner right now. Is Herman Cain leading, or Romney? How close is Gingrich? Has Rick Perry faded permanently below the Pauldoza line?

 

Read More | November 14, 2011
Newt up, everyone else down in the Cain fallout

When I write about the polling, I hesitate to say more than I have to about the events going on that drive the numbers. I risk introducing unnecessary bias due to mixing the math with my own observations.

But the Herman Cain harassment story is the story right now. Two new pre-debate polls are out. Cain is down further, Rick Perry is back down after Cain attacked him, so guess who’s on the rise, in second or tied for second in both polls? Newt Gingrich.

 

Read More | November 11, 2011
Perry and Gingrich, sitting in the polls…

R-E-B-O-U-N-D-I-N-G.

First came Cain, then came Politico, then came USA Today/Gallup and NBC News/Wall Street Journal with the latest numbers.

This also make three straight post-scandal polls that have shown Cain to have re-lost his lead over Romney.

 

Read More | November 7, 2011
The Rollercoaster goes back down for Herman Cain

We saw last week that Herman Cain was on his way up before the Politico story, and fell off slightly afterward.

Friday brought us a new poll which reinforces past conclusions. Yes, he really was on the way down last week, despite raising money in the seven figures.

 

Read More | November 7, 2011
Cain on the roller coaster

It always pleases me when two polls taken close together have very similar results. Even if they make out to be wrong some speculation of mine.

So yes, it’s looking like Herman Cain isn’t exactly being helped this week. And if the new Rasmussen poll is genuinely showing a trend from the previous national poll, then he needs this story done as soon as possible. Eyes are wandering.

 

Read More | November 4, 2011