Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Tied again in Pennsylvania

Yup, Joe Sestak and Pat Toomey are tied again, says Public Policy Polling.

The only way I saw Toomey keeping his previous lead was if the Job Offer controversy heated up and implicated Sestak in wrongdoing. It seems clear to me that the whole thing has blown over, and now the electorate has shifted back toward the tie I expect it to be from now to November.

PPP has the race now at 41-41 (MoE 4.0). Toomey has 73% of Republicans and Sestak 70% of Democrats. When Sestak fell behind by 6, Sestak was only getting 59% of Democrats. I blame that on the scandal, but now that it’s gone, the Democrats are uniting again, as PPP points out.

PPP is also optimistic about the chances for Democrats here:

“Joe Sestak is tied with Pat Toomey even though we see a Pennsylvania electorate for this fall that is much more Republican friendly than the one that turned out two years ago,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If Democrats can get their voters more engaged they’ll be favored here.”

While it is true that Sestak can’t have pinned on him the issues that are driving the current voter anger, such as TARP and PPACA, he may have to take a stand on the latter at least. So I’m skeptical he’ll be able to buck the national trend without bucking his party on its largest accomplishment of the Obama administration.

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