Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

A surprise turn in Wisconsin

Good afternoon, wherever you may be. My apologies for getting today’s poll goodness out late, especially since it’s one I wanted to post yesterday anyway.

But it turns out that, per Rasmussen, the Wisconsin Senate may yet be a race after all, despite the fact that many of us probably tuned it out once Tommy Thompson declined to run.

Indeed, GOP convention endorsee Ron Johnson has very nearly tied Russ Feingold 45-46 (MoE 4.5). It irks me when people talk about a “statistical tie,” but at 55/45 lead probabilities, this poll is pretty fair to call a statistical tie.

The PPACA doesn’t seem to be helping Feingold. Unlike what we saw in California and Illinois, Wisconsin can’t even come up with a slim majority for it, and support for repeal runs 58-39. Is that a factor? It sure wouldn’t surprise me.

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