Poll Analysis and Election Projection
Once again, the polls were pretty close. Mitt Romney’s ground game carried him to overperform. Gingrich underperformed. A 10 point advantage became 14, and Romney approached an absolute majority closer than I imagined he could.
Romney sweeps Florida’s at-large delegates and takes a 66-25 lead among pledged delegates.
Another week, another look at where the generic ballot polls are taking us! Last week’s House update had the Republicans gaining 60 seats in the House of Representatives, truly a historic gain wiping out the last two elections’ worth of gains for the Democrats.
But with all the new polls out since, let’s see where we are now.
If this isn’t the most exciting and competitive year for Republican primaries of all time, it has to be close. Ovide Lamontagne had faded far behind Kelly Ayotte in the New Hampshire Senate primary, but he’s been making a comeback. And now Public Policy Polling has him truly competitive.
And to think he looked like spoiler bait once upon a time!
I said twice before that Christine O’Donnell’s big challenge in the Delaware Republican primary for Senate was that she needed to give the voters a reason to vote for her over the popular Mike Castle. For the whole primary season, she’d failed at that.
Judging by the new PPP poll, she’s very recently had great success. She leads.
I’d written off Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in her run for re-election in the South Dakota At-Large House seat. Poll after poll has been very friendly to Republican Kristi Noem.
But if this new Rasmussen isn’t an outlier, then I was as wrong as you can be.
Much as Richard Burr has underperformed in the view of many, so too is Democrat Richard Blumenthal having more trouble than expected to shake Republican Linda McMahon in the Connecticut Senate race.
And while it is Rasmussen’s second consecutive single-digit gap that inspires this post, Quinnipiac also has it at 10, a long way from the D+41 of January.
Michigan: home of the last of the classical private sector unions. The UAW does not hide its partisan bias, and that influence has kept the whole state leaning toward the Democrats for a while now. Long ago a solidly Republican state, the trend has been toward the Democrats, and the state hasn’t supported the Republican Presidential ticket since 1988, nor a Republican Senator since 1994.
But Democrat Virg Bernero seems to have no chance to be elected Governor, as Republican Rick Snyder is trouncing him in every poll, including this Glengariff Group poll for the Detroit News and WDIV.
Normally when I’m skeptical of a poll it’s because it’s from a firm I don’t trust or because I don’t think its methodology makes it predictive of the actual election.
But here we have Rasmussen Reports polling likely voters, and it’s by far the best poll I’ve seen for Republican Richard Burr in the North Carolina Senate race against Democrat Elaine Marshall.
I’ve asked Public Policy Polling on Twitter to please poll the West Virginia Senate race, but until someone else acts we’re stuck with just Rasmussen.
But at least we have a new Rasmussen out, marking the third straight gain for Republican John Raese over Democrat Joe Manchin.
It’s already bad enough for Democrat Robin Carnahan that she hasn’t led a poll this year, but since primaries Republican Roy Blunt’s lead has been growing. In the likely voter polls he now leads by 6, 7, and now 10 in the latest Rasmussen.
Opinion Research polled California, Florida, and Kentucky for CNN and Time. The results seem off from those of other recent polls. Let’s find out why.
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