Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

A rainbow of polls in Nevada

By on September 15, 2010

A rainbow of polls in Nevada

Real Clear Politics showed 21 polls yesterday, plus we’re already at 5 today, so I’m grateful that some of them can be done in batches as with this bunch on the Nevada Senate race from Ipsos for Reuters, Rasmussen Reports, and POR for Fox News.

If we color Republican advantages in red, leads for Democrats in blue, and ties in green, then this set is a rainbow of results. Not a full rainbow or a double rainbow though, sorry.

So yes, as implied above, Democrat Harry Reid leads one poll – from Ipsos/Reuters – 46-44, MoE 4.6. Republican Sharron Angle leads one poll – from Fox News – 45-44, MoE 3. And they’re tied at 48 in the Rasmussen Reports poll.

This seems to be another slight move Angle’s way, after the previously-detected slight move Reid’s way, which just goes back to what I’ve been saying for a while: the normal state of this race is a tie. This may be the race we watch recounted in November, which would not be a first for Reid. He had a very close shave against John Ensign, when that Republican made his first Senate run.

I also expect that with Nevada’s relatively low but concentrated population, and the tiny margin of this race, that it will have the highest leverage of outside money of any Senate race this year. Nevada voters will probably be well tired of the television ads by the time election day finally arrives.

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