Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

The first post-primary poll in New Hampshire

If I’m going to break my rule and talk about Delaware right away, then I might as well do the same and cover the new Rasmussen poll on New Hampshire, which is the first post-primary poll of that Senate race between Republican nominee Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Paul Hodes.

For a while there it wasn’t sure we’d get this matchup after all, but here we are.

So yes, Hodes has gotten a lift since the last poll. Ayotte’s lead as gone from 51-38 to 51-44 (MoE 4.5). I’m guessing the whole difference is in leaners, whom Rasmussen has included in this race for the first time.

This isn’t the first race I’ve seen this pattern in, either. Leaners seem to favor one side or the other, and in this case the weak support is with Paul Hodes. It’s not always the Democrat, either, even though it is here.

I’m not entirely sure what to think of leaners who are likely voters. We don’t think they’ll stay home, but they’re not particularly motivated to vote one way or the other. But they are there, and so this race is closer now. It’s now an 80/20 split per this poll, which again is down a bit for Ayotte, but still pretty comfortable for her.

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