Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

A good week for Richard Burr, indeed

SurveyUSA polled the North Carolina Senate race for WRAL, and the result is striking. In fact, it’s entirely unlike any other poll I’ve seen of the race between Republican Richard Burr and Democrat Elaine Marshall.

This poll makes Burr’s last big polling jump look small and timid.

24 points. That’s how far up SurveyUSA has Burr right now. 58-34 (MoE 4.1) is that top line. That’s a lead 50% larger than that very good numer for him from Rasmussen, and his overall largest since a lone Mason-Dixon poll in Feburary that had him up 25.

Do we actually believe that Richard Burr could be at 58? I’m not entirely sure. He first won 52-47 against Erskine Bowles. Could incumbency and a wave year be worth six points? I don’t doubt it.

So this result is in the realm of possibility, I can’t deny. But when a result comes along that’s unlike all of the others, I’m inclined to doubt the one that is not the same. In this case, the result that is different is this massive Burr lead.

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