Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

The first post-primary poll in Delaware

I normally like to let these races rest a week before I start looking into the polling, but thanks to one pollster sitting on a pre-primary poll to drop the bomb after the primary, I thought I’d hit today the actual first post-primary poll of the race between Democrat Chris Coons and Republican Christine O’Donnell.

Before the primary, and especially before the primary got nasty, O’Donnell was running at about a 10% win probability. This Rasmussen poll is worse for her than that, as it puts the race at a 92/8 split for Coons. Coons leads the poll 53-42 (MoE 4).

In particular, the primary has lifted O’Donnell’s Very Unfavorable rating all the way up to 38%, putting her total favorability situation below zero at 42/54/5. Coons meanwhile, having coasted in the primary, sits at 58/34/8.

At this point I think Coons has one job, and O’Donnell has two. Coons has to race to redefine himself as voter attention returns to him. O’Donnell must redefine Coons and unify the Republican party after the primary. Interestingly enough, for O’Donnell the two tasks might be accomplished simply by attacking Coons.

Comments

One Response to “The first post-primary poll in Delaware”

  1. “At this point I think Coons has one job, and O’Donnell has two.”

    Agreed. The money pouring into O’Donnell’s campaign will guarantee that she has the money needed to redefine Coons. O’Donnell is not afraid of a tough fight or she would never have taken on Castle. Right now, she is the outsider in the campaign. Being the outsider is a HUGE advantage in this election cycle (as long as you don’t crash and burn which she will not do).

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