Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

A trio of polls on the Ohio Senate race

I’m beginning to think that it may be time to scale back my near-obsessive coverage of the Ohio Senate race. It’s been a rollercoaster, but Democrat Lee Fisher has not shown a lead over Republican Rob Portman since June.

The three new polls out, from Rasmussen Reports, SurveyUSA, and Fox News/POR don’t change that, either.

Rasmussen shows Portman 49, Fisher 41 (MoE 4). SurveyUSA says Portman 49, Fisher 40 (MoE 4). Fox News says Portman 48, Fisher 41 (MoE 3). It’s amazing to have three polls all saying the same thing, plus or minus a little random noise.

Much as I was saying about Kentucky, I have to think at this point it’s incumbent upon Lee Fisher to make something happen or else this race just isn’t going to change. Rob Portman has a steady lead, is well-funded, and has a united Ohio Republican Party behind him. Portman isn’t going to make a critical mistake and hand this race to Fisher. If Fisher wants it, he has to find a way to take it. But until he finds a way, I don’t know if this race is really one that needs close watching anymore. It’s Portman’s to lose.

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