Unlikely Voter

The Illinois Senate race is already set to be an ugly war, only distinguished from France 1916 by the lack of chemical warfare. Both candidates are hated and have baggage that is not going to go away. Either one can win, though, judging by the polling I’ve seen.

But if Republicans rally around a surging Bill Brady while Pat Quinn polls as poorly as Alexi Giannoulias, then that will only help Mark Kirk, just as I expect in nearby Wisconsin.

Even in a wave election, some members of the losing party stand well in their own local elections. However one key trait of a wave election is that the losing party’s base is so discouraged that they fail to show up.

So if this Rasmussen poll is right, I think the nomination of Scott Walker for Governor by Republicans would depress Democrats in Wisconsin, and hurt Senator Russ Feingold’s re-election chances.

So we had two major polls going into the Colorado primaries: SurveyUSA and Public Policy Polling were on the line.

How’d they do against the actual results of Ken Buck over Jane Norton 52-48, Dan Maes over Scott McInnis 51-49, and Michael Bennet over Andrew Romanoff 54-46?

Another buzzer beater poll to look at: local Republican oriented firm Landmark Communications polled the Georgia runoff primary for Governor between Karen Handel and Nathan Deal.

This time, the advantage goes to deal. Can’t we get any consistency in primary polling this year?

Colorado voters have primaries to attend to today, but PPP has one last primary poll to give us something to look at before the real polls close.

Mason Dixon polled the Georgia Republican primary for Governor for the Georgia Newspaper Partnership, to see who might face Roy Barnes in November.

With the runoff tomorrow, it’s looking good for Karen Handel as she leads Nathan Deal, despite the problems we’ve seen with primary polling this year.

At-Large House races may get a disproportionate amount of attention and polling, but it is what it is. So Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s polling troubles get the whole country’s attention, while a House incumbent in some other state might barely draw notice.

And the South Dakota At-Large Representative is having serious problems. I just don’t see how she can win this.

The last we looked in at Florida, the primaries seemed to be settling down. The two key races with remaining primaries, two Republicans running for Governor and two Democrats running for Senate, seemed to be showing clear frontrunners.

Well now a pair of polls have come out checking the general election matchups, but in those I’m seeing no clarity, but just a lot of noise and some confusing, close, three-way races.

SurveyUSA polled Colorado for KUSA and the Denver Post. There is in fact more going on than the chaos of the Republican primary for Governor.

The Democrats also have primaries going on, and SUSA shows movement there, too.

After an exciting and unpredictable (thought not often in a good way) primary season, it seems that Nikki Haley has reason to relax some.

Not that she can quit campaigning, but a large lead over Vincent Sheheen makes it clear that the earlier nastiness has long been put to bed in South Carolina.

I’ve been staring slack-jawed so long at Russ Feingold’s surprising difficulties in Wisconsin, that I completely neglected to see that there’s a close race for Governor going on in that state, too.

Wisconsin has long been the state most friendly to progressives in America. Could Republicans win the top two statewide races there, without the benefit of an anomaly like the Paul Wellstone funeral?

Florida is a large and aggressively contested state. It, of all states, demands the clarity of traditional horserace polling. We have been denied that opportunity yet, though, because the Republicans still need a candidate for Governor and the Democrats still need a candidate for Senate.

Quinnpiac’s poll suggests we may get answers soon, as late entering political novices Rick Scott and Jeff Greene take leads, showing clear daylight between the candidates in each primary.

We’re now at three polls in a row, counting the new Rasmussen, that show Chris Dudley ahead of John Kitzhaber in Oregon.

Even without a third party candidate mucking up the poll, the Democrat just can’t pull ahead.