Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Posts Tagged ‘ Governor ’

Being just one man trying to cover 435 House races, 37 Senate races, a few dozen more states electing Governors, plus some of the technical and mathematical aspects of polling, I tend not to post on races that aren’t competitive.

So it’s surprising to me that I now have not one, but two New York polls to discuss today: Quinnipiac on the Governor’s race and Rasmussen on the Senate special election.

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Daily Kos checks on Wisconsin

By on September 21, 2010

Along with West Virginia, Wisconsin I wanted to see more polling in. Rasmussen Reports has been the lone voice up there polling again and again, showing these key races competitive while the rest of the polling world passed on by.

PPP went there for Daily Kos finally, and now we get that critical second opinion on the races to see if they are as competitive as Rasmussen said.

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Doubling back on California

By on September 21, 2010

So it’s looking like PPP is the only pollster so bullish for Democrats in California, because we’re back to polling that has the race close with the new result from Fox News.

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Daily Kos and Public Policy Polling have hinted on Twitter that they have a new Wisconsin poll coming, which I am glad of because I’ve long wanted to see a second opinion in that state, but I’d like to start the week by hitting a pair of polls I missed while I was in Austin over the weekend: Rasmussen Reports on the Wisconsin Senate race and then and then on the race for Governor.

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Candidates matter. Even in a wave year, some candidates on the losing side will have no trouble. Dianne Feinstein was an example of that in 1994, and Democrat Ron Wyden appears to be one in 2010, as he is comfortable over Republican Jim Huffman in the latest SurveyUSA poll even as that poll and the Riley poll both have Republican Chris Dudley highly competitive for Governor against Democrat John Kitzhaber.

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Colorado is one of those states where the Republican Party had done pretty poorly lately. It looked like this year was the year of mending though, but it’s hard to see that in the Governor’s race. Democrat John Hickenlooper leads Republican Dan Maes easily in the new Rasmussen, but that’s because of a third party protest run going on this year.

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Michigan: home of the last of the classical private sector unions. The UAW does not hide its partisan bias, and that influence has kept the whole state leaning toward the Democrats for a while now. Long ago a solidly Republican state, the trend has been toward the Democrats, and the state hasn’t supported the Republican Presidential ticket since 1988, nor a Republican Senator since 1994.

But Democrat Virg Bernero seems to have no chance to be elected Governor, as Republican Rick Snyder is trouncing him in every poll, including this Glengariff Group poll for the Detroit News and WDIV.

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Opinion Research polled California, Florida, and Kentucky for CNN and Time. The results seem off from those of other recent polls. Let’s find out why.

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We’re seeing a real discrepancy in the California Senate polling. SurveyUSA’s last two results were Republican Carly Fiorina ahead 5 and and now 2, while Rasmussen Reports has had Democrat Barbara Boxer up 5.

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For a long while I thought the Ohio Senate seat the one Republican held seat most likely to turn over to the Democrats, but that time is long gone. The numbers have shifted in Ohio. Democrat Lee Fisher hasn’t led Republican Rob Portman in a poll since June. Add in that incumbent Governor Ted Strickland is fading in his re-election bid against Republican John Kasich, and the environment created just might be too negative for Fisher to come back.

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