Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Confusion in the Florida Generals

The last we looked in at Florida, the primaries seemed to be settling down. The two key races with remaining primaries, two Republicans running for Governor and two Democrats running for Senate, seemed to be showing clear frontrunners.

Well now a pair of polls have come out checking the general election matchups, but in those I’m seeing no clarity, but just a lot of noise and some confusing, close, three-way races.

First we have Rasmussen on the Governor’s race. Alex Sink’s support level manages to peg at exactly 31 against both Republicans, but Bill McCollum runs 8 points behind Rick Scott (MoE 4.5) at 27 to 35, and Bud Chiles gains 4 against McCollum, going from 16 to 20. McCollum seems to have been wounded in the primary. He could probably regain at least some of that support if he won, though, I think.

Meanwhile, on the Senate side, McLaughlin & Associates conducted a poll for the Associated Industries of Florida. The poll shows little change between the two Democrats in the running. Charlie Crist leads Marco Rubio 38-36 to Kendrick Meek’s 16, and Rubio pulls to a 37-37 tie to Jeff Greene’s 16. The one point shifts in Crist’s and Rubio’s support are far more likely to be random noise than a real difference, with a Margin of Error of 4 involved.

So Jeff Greene may be taking a lead in the primary, but Kendrick Meek seems no worse in the general right now, unlike Bill McCollum who seems to be taking big hits from Rick Scott in their primary.

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