Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Scott Walker would be bad news for Russ Feingold

Even in a wave election, some members of the losing party stand well in their own local elections. However one key trait of a wave election is that the losing party’s base is so discouraged that they fail to show up.

So if this Rasmussen poll is right, I think the nomination of Scott Walker for Governor by Republicans would depress Democrats in Wisconsin, and hurt Senator Russ Feingold’s re-election chances.

Rasmussen carpet bombed the Wisconsin Governor’s race, matchup Democrat Tom Barrett against most likely Republican nominees Mark Neumann and Scott Walker. Barrett does fine against Neumann, trailing by a bare 45-43 margin (MoE 4) for a 59/41 split of lead probabilities.

Walker, on the other hand, leads Barrett 49-41, and takes an incumbent-like 84/16 split, clearly ahead. In an environment where Democrats are already hearing the drums of doom and gloom from national analysts, hearing their own state’s troubles can’t help. And when Russ Feingold is close to Republican Ron Johnson in the polls as it is, he needs all the help he can get to keep his seat.

Should Republicans in Wisconsin put up a ticket of Walker and Johnson, the whole could be greater than the sum of the parts and each could win by more than expected.

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