Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Nikki Haley cruising

By on August 3, 2010

Nikki Haley cruising

After an exciting and unpredictable (thought not often in a good way) primary season, it seems that Nikki Haley has reason to relax some.

Not that she can quit campaigning, but a large lead over Vincent Sheheen makes it clear that the earlier nastiness has long been put to bed in South Carolina.

There’s hardly much to say about a poll like this. Rasmussen has Haley up comfortably: 49-35 (MoE 4.5). I show a 6% chance that Sheheen is actually ahead after a result like that.

Rasmussen notes that Sheheen gets 68% of South Carolina likely voters who believe the economy is getting better, but only 22% believe that. On the other hand, 69% believe the US is in a recession.

The Senate race, with Alvin Greene not even being trusted by his own party members in his race against Jim DeMint, doesn’t seem likely to give Sheheen any boost, either. I think Democrats need news in this state to turn it around this year, but even that seems unlikely because Nikki Haley has had enough news for a lifetime this year!

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