Poll Analysis and Election Projection
New York Magazine was trying to be sympathetic to the popular polling figures on its own side of the political, but let out a secret in the process: Public Policy Polling cooked the books all along.
A couple of debates ago we looked at where the Republican Presidential primary stood nationally. Since then we’ve seen Mitt Romney surge, presumably as the anti-Rick Perry candidate.
But will Perry himself tumble after widely criticized debate efforts? Let’s check the new CNN poll.
Last time around, Mitt Romney took a blow when he took ‘silver’ in his neighboring state New Hampshire, losing to the man who’d been plotting to win the state since the last contested primary there, John McCain.
This time it looks like Romney is going to repeat the McCain strategy. By never having given up on the state since November 2008, Romney looks set to take the state this time around, according to the new Suffolk University/WHDH poll.
The new Gallup poll of the Republican contenders is out, this time with USA TODAY branding. Just looking at the frontrunners Rick Perry and Mitt Romney in isolation, it looks like Romney is gaining. What I find interesting though is where that support appears to be coming from.
Romney’s support may be coming from Michele Bachmann.
Last night CNN hosted a key Republican Presidential debate, in which Rick Perry took a variety of attacks. This is critical because going into Rick Perry’s first debate, his favorability ratings were great, and his unfavorables were miniscule compared with the field.
Let’s see where CNN had the state of the race going into last night.
Swingometer is my favorite tool for projecting elections these days, but when it comes to the Presidential election, we all like to run our own scenarios. Not wanting to give up that traffic to other sites, I was obligated to write my own Create your own Electoral College tool.
Enjoy!
I’ve added a new feature to the Swingometers: Click on a state/district and it gives more information. Simple enough, but maybe it’s handy.
Attacks on Rick Perry, new Presidential candidate and sudden poll leader, have begun to mount. He will soon take the stage in a debate against the other candidates. His opponents in both parties are determined to leave a mark on him.
Let’s take a look at where he’s at as the pressure grows.
Ten years ago, Gallup started polling the opinions Americans had of various industries. Two years later, the US Government was thrown into the mix. Monday, Gallup looked back to see how they’ve all done over the last decade.
It turns out the Federal Government is now less popular than any polled industry. Including Bankers, Lawyers, and Oil men.
I mentioned recently that broader polling pools favor Democrats, so when a big new poll of adults comes out from Gallup that shows Barack Obama to be in trouble, I take notice.
Earlier this week we caught an Iowa poll showing Rick Perry as a new leader in that state’s Republican Presidential race. Yesterday Public Policy Polling came out with a new Iowa poll as well.
Judge for yourself, but I’d say the broad strokes of the We Ask America poll are confirmed, at least when it comes to the big three candidates, though maybe not with Sarah Palin.
Now available: a version of the Swingometer for the iPhone® and iPod Touch®! Get it in the App Store℠!
House of Representatives Swingometer
Electoral College Swingometer