Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Perry had better get Fed Up, fast. This is Herman Cain time.

Rick Perry had better get fed up fast with his polling situation. As I warned on Tuesday, he’s teetering at the brink of irrelevance.

This is Herman Cain’s moment. The new Fox News poll only confirms the CBS poll.

The facts: 328 GOP primary voters, by Anderson Robbins/Shaw & Company, polled with mobile and landline handling. MoE 5.5.

These results are largely similar to the CBS results we saw. Perry ends up in fourth place, not fifth, but only by a hair. It’s nearly a coinflip whether he’s above or below the Pauldoza line. He’s got to turn this around or he just won’t be worth talking about anymore. And the key was in precisely what I said all along it would be in: When he led, his favorability ratings were sky high. Now Fox has him at -21. Yes, minus 21. Compare with Mitt Romney’s +4 and Herman Cain’s +4. Note that these ratings may sound low, but it’s because they’re among all Registered Voters, not just the likely Republican primary voters.

Among those Republicans, Cain leads. He’s at 24 to Romney’s 20, and Perry’s 10. Perry breaks his string of single digit showings, but by the slimmest of margins.

Herman Cain’s moment is continuing. If he can keep his favorability ratings up, then I expect him to do well in the weeks ahead. In fact, if Romney has another showing like the last debate, with Cain keeping from stumbling, then Cain just might become a clear, sole frontrunner.

Comments

One Response to “Perry had better get Fed Up, fast. This is Herman Cain time.”

  1. Kay B. Day says:

    I wonder if Perry (and maybe Cain too) realize the machine they’re up against. I get the feeling the GOP nomination is pre-ordained. I took a look at a lot of the polls over the last month–did you see the ORC polls on primary states? I wasn’t able to find much on those polls (I found plenty of info on ORC which appears to be a UK based company). I’m having hard time buying a Romney lead in Florida because here, only the longtime powers (and not even all of those) are supporting him.

    I’m also getting a feeling the abundance of polls is being used as a driver for Romney, much like they were used for Obama in 2008. Now we know one of the most consistent cheerleaders for Obama was using fraudulent polling data. I don’t know how the Kos lawsuit turned out tho.

    You’re right. Perry should get fired up fast. If you compare his book to his public performance, you just have to ask yourself why he didn’t stick to the book for messaging because it’s a very coherent, well-thought work. best, KBD

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