Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

All eyes turn to Rick Perry

Attacks on Rick Perry, new Presidential candidate and sudden poll leader, have begun to mount. He will soon take the stage in a debate against the other candidates. His opponents in both parties are determined to leave a mark on him.

Let’s take a look at where he’s at as the pressure grows.

 

Read More | September 2, 2011
US Government finds new lows in popularity

Ten years ago, Gallup started polling the opinions Americans had of various industries. Two years later, the US Government was thrown into the mix. Monday, Gallup looked back to see how they’ve all done over the last decade.

It turns out the Federal Government is now less popular than any polled industry. Including Bankers, Lawyers, and Oil men.

 

Read More | August 30, 2011
Polling catastrophe for President Obama

I mentioned recently that broader polling pools favor Democrats, so when a big new poll of adults comes out from Gallup that shows Barack Obama to be in trouble, I take notice.

 

Read More | August 29, 2011
PPP partially confirms We Ask America’s Iowa results

Earlier this week we caught an Iowa poll showing Rick Perry as a new leader in that state’s Republican Presidential race. Yesterday Public Policy Polling came out with a new Iowa poll as well.

Judge for yourself, but I’d say the broad strokes of the We Ask America poll are confirmed, at least when it comes to the big three candidates, though maybe not with Sarah Palin.

 

Read More | August 24, 2011
The oddity of Ron Paul

This week Gallup polled four Republican candidates against Barack Obama. For the three leading Republicans the results are typical, and do more to show the difference between polls of adults and polls of registered voters (Gallup polled both).

But oddly enough, Ron Paul was different.

 

Read More | August 24, 2011
The candidates Iowa Republicans don’t want

By request, we have a somewhat unusual poll: We Ask America asked Iowa Republicans which candidate they don’t want as the Republican Presidential nominee in 2012.

As is usual this time of year, the poll is skewed by the inclusion of non-candidates. This time, overwhelmingly so.

 

Read More | August 22, 2011
Perry shows strength, but Romney’s front running in doubt?

By request I’m taking a look at a new poll of California Republicans by Probolsky Research. It shares problems I’m seeing in many early Presidential polls, but I am surprised at one finding that may be bad news for Mitt Romney.

 

Read More | August 18, 2011
Democrats poised to make House gains in 2012

While the 2012 House Swingometer may have problems due to redistricting making it impossible to do a perfect seat-for-seat swing, I’m going to try using it anyway to see what it says.

We have two generic ballot polls from last month. Let’s see what they might predict for the House in 2012.

 

Read More | August 4, 2011
Mourdock edges out Lugar in early poll

I know I’m a week late to this; I had a busy two weeks there and am only now catching up this week. I do believe this poll is worth a mention anyway, though. But the Club for Growth polled Republicans in Indiana, the site of arguably the biggest TEA party primary loss in 2010, on their choice for Senator in 2012.

The conventional wisdom has always been that incumbents under 50 are vulnerable. But what do they say about incumbents under 40?

 

Read More | August 2, 2011
Catching Up

Sorry I’m behind in my polling commentary. Had a busy two weeks here. Time to start catching up.

 

Read More | July 29, 2011